Kansas City has been putrid on offense in recent weeks. Don't look for much change this weekend as they play host to the stingy Steelers in Week 12 NFL action.
Welcome to part two of our campaign series for Sunday
night's game between the Chiefs and Steelers.
First up was our analysis of the opening spread, and shocking absolutely no one, Pittsburgh enters the matchup as the double-digit
favorites in the NFL odds.
It's time to turn our attention to the O/U now. The total
for this game opened at 39 and can now be found at 40 at most, if not all of
the top NFL betting sites.
Time to wake up KC
If you've been watching the Chiefs over the last month, you
wouldn't be all that surprised to learn that their last five matchups have fallen UNDER
Week 7 and Week 8 were successful, as KC shut out the Raiders
28-0 in Oakland and then outlasted the San Diego Chargers in overtime, but it's all gone to hell since then.
The Chiefs have lost three straight and have totaled a
laughable 13 points in that span. They were blown out 31-3 by the Miami
Dolphins, lost by a touchdown to the Denver Broncos, and were again shellacked
last weekend by the New England Patriots.
In his starting debut, Tyler Palko could not get his team
into the endzone. He finished with 236 passing yards but was picked off three
times in what was far from a convincing performance from the quarterback.
During the week, the Chiefs acted fast after Kyle Orton was
released by Denver, and they were able to claim him off waivers. Palko will remain the starter
but I fully expect Orton to take over that role shortly, possibly even as soon
as Week 13.
In all, Kansas City ranks 26th in total offense,
their solid running attack (123.9 YPG) making up for a lackluster passing game.
The Chiefs are averaging just 185.5 YPG through the air.
Pittsburgh meanwhile has been having another very good year
on the defensive side of the ball. They are rank second in the NFL in total
defense and have been especially productive at defending the pass this season.
Pitt should be able to shut down Chiefs on SNF
Thus far the Steelers are allowing only 183.2 passing yards
per game (third in the league) and have been no slouches versus the run either.
In the 2009 meeting between Pittsburgh and Kansas City, the
total flied over the posted O/U of 39.5. The final score was 27-24 with the
Chiefs getting the victory.
In my book there's just no way we see KC putting up that
many points here on Sunday night.
The Chiefs were struggling on offense even when Matt Cassel
was healthy, so it's not just Palko that was the problem last week. But when
you score only three points against the NFL's worst defense, something is
Pittsburgh has been excellent across the board defensively
and has also had a week off to gameplan for whatever the Chiefs may throw at
them. The only thing I worry about is the Steelers piling up points but it's
not enough to keep me away from adding the under to my NFL picks this weekend.
FREE Pick: UNDER 40
The OVER is 6-1 in Steelers' last seven road games and 10-4
in their previous 14 games overall
The UNDER is 5-0 in Chiefs' past five matchups
OVER is 5-0 in the past five meetings head-to-head