It's time for our final ATS pick for Pittsburgh's visit to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs. 

An opening line of 11.5 (with Pitt favored) has been bet down slightly to 10.5 at some sportsbooks including Pinnacle, Bookmaker, and Legends. 5Dimes still has 11.5 available while Bodog has a spread of 11 for the taking. 


It's not often you see the home team set as the double-digit underdog in the NFL odds but that's just proof of how bad the Chiefs have been in recent weeks. 

Chiefs are spiraling into irrelevancy 

Troy PolamaluThey've lost three straight and also saw their starting quarterback go down with injury. The first two losses were at home to beatable teams and last weekend KC was destroyed by the Patriots up in Foxborough. 

The Chiefs now find themselves in last position in the AFC West with a 4-6 SU record. Their offensive production has halted, with the team now having 144 total points this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. 

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had a week's rest after battling past divisional rival Cincinnati 24-17 in Week 10. 

The Steelers have now won five of their last six, their only defeat coming at home to Baltimore. They are 7-3 SU on the season and are one game back of the Ravens in the AFC North

What that means is that every game from here on out is of utmost importance for Mike Tomlin's men. 

That time off came at a great time for Ben Roethlisberger, who is dealing with an injured thumb on his throwing hand. The two-time Super Bowl champion has recorded 13 touchdowns against only four interceptions over his last six games. 

On the opposite side, the Chiefs will hand over the reigns to Tyler Palko once again this weekend, despite claiming veteran Kyle Orton off waivers during the week. 

You have to think it's only a matter of time before Orton takes over. Another poor performance from Palko against the Steelers and it could come sooner rather than later. 

Another blowout defeat for KC? 

However you spin it, Kansas City is going to have to really bring it in every phase of the game if they're to hang with Pittsburgh. 

Rashard Mendenhall can be expected to get a heavy workload up against a KC rush defense that is allowing 136.3 YPG. 

On the defensive side of the ball, the strength of the Steelers is well-documented. They are third in pass defense and sixth in rush defense, so you've got to like their chances of keeping Palko and company in check. 

The past month couldn't really have gone any worse for the Chiefs. They are in a bad state right now and the Steelers should be able to roll to a double-digit win on Sunday night. 

FREE Pick: Pittsburgh -10.5 


Steelers are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite 

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in six most recent games as an underdog 

Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in previous seven matchups at Arrowhead Stadium 

Home team is 4-1 ATS in past five head-to-head meetings 

Make sure you check out the first two parts of this campaign series. The analysis of the opening odds and the article on betting the total.