A classic showdown between one of the NFL's most formidable defenses and a highly explosive offense. We help you with your decision in regards to betting the total in Sunday night's showdown between the Jets and Pats.
What a game we have on our hands this Sunday night.
Both 5-3 SU this season, the New York Jets get their shot at
a little payback when they host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at
As I said in our earlier article on the opening spread odds, I was expecting the Jets to be favored by a field goal for this
game and it looks as if we're starting to head that way as the week progresses.
Quite a high total for Week 10 AFC East slugfest
The NFL odds opened at a PK but now we see that New York is the
2-point favorite at NFL betting sites such as Bookmaker and JustBet.
In terms of the total, sportsbooks think offense might win
out over a defensive struggle (these are the Patriots we're talking about) as
the O/U is currently at 47.5.
Brady has to be well aware of where Darrelle Revis is at all
times. The shutdown corner already has four interceptions this season, putting
him tied for second in the league.
Though Wes Welker had 124 yards receiving in the first
meeting against New York, if anyone can slow him down, it will likely be Revis.
The entire Jets secondary has, in fact, been excellent, only
allowing 196.0 passing yards on average which is the NFL's seventh-best total.
As solid as New York has been defensively, there are still a
few question marks on offense. Mark Sanchez is enjoying his best season of his
young career (13 TDs, 7 INT, 84.0 QB rating) and Plaxico Burress leads the team
in touchdown grabs, but the Jets' running game has without question taken a
Primary RB Shonn Greene started off the year in horrible
fashion, though he has stepped up his play in recent weeks. Still, he's
averaging only 3.8 YPC this season, the worst average of his career so far.
LaDanian Tomlinson (3.3 YPC) has also failed to impress, and
as bad as the Patriots have been defensively, they haven't actually been that
terrible at stopping the run.
Patriots D has been absolutely atrocious
New England's failures on defense, however, are
well-documented. They are ranked 31st in the NFL in total yardage
allowed and are the league's worst at defending the pass.
As a result, look for Sanchez to take a few shots downfield
to Burress and Santonio Holmes in order test the Patriots' secondary. You have
to imagine he'll also be targeting TE Dustin Keller quite a bit across the middle.
New England's gameplan is quite simple: put the ball in
Brady's hands and let him do what Tom Brady does best.
While it was BenJarvus Green-Ellis that killed New York
earlier this season, the Jets have been much-improved in all aspects of their
defense over their last few games, so a similar dismantling of their front
seven seems unlikely.
It's obvious the Jets will be trying to control the clock as
they did last week against the Buffalo Bills. If they can be successful in that
regard, expect the total to fall below the posted O/U.
FREE Pick: UNDER 48
Keep checking back on SBRForum to see who we'll be rolling
with ATS on Sunday Night Football. Will it be a fourth straight SU win and ATS
cover for Rex Ryan? Stay tuned for all of our NFL picks.
This game's thread
is also full of intriguing perspectives and it's never a bad idea to approach
your picks with as much knowledge as possible!