Where do we think that the best value lies on the Week 6 odds boards for your NFL picks? Find out which games we are jumping on early, as we know that the value can vanish quickly. Are more upsets on the way?

We’re on to Week 6 of the NFL season and the picture is starting to clear up. While people still keep waiting on the Green Bay Packers to get better and the Arizona Cardinals to get worse, it’s time to embrace the new reality that we live in. The variables have changed from last season and expecting on things to go back to how they were will cost bettors a lot of money. Just ask people who have been betting the New Orleans Saints.

On that note, here are our value NFL picks for Week 6.

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers 

Phillip RiversWe were burned by the Broncos last week – just barely, thanks to Willis McGahee’s drops and fumbles – but I’m going to ride with them again this week. I see them as being the better of the two teams in this division and that should show on Monday night.

The Chargers 3-2 record is a tad misleading in my eyes because they’re three wins have come against the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans. Combined, those teams are 3-11. Meanwhile, the Broncos three losses have come to New England, Houston and Atlanta – by an average of 7.3 points per game, I might add – and those teams are a combined 12-2. 

The Broncos defense is the better of the two units and I see their offense as being more balanced. If they can force the game on Philip Rivers’ shoulders, they should be in good shape.

This is an important game for Denver. If they lose, they’re two games out of first without the tiebreaker. If they win, they’ll move into first in the division. Look for them to put forth their best effort and win this game.

Pick: Broncos +3

St. Louis Rams vs. Miami Dolphins

This isn’t a game I love but I do see there being some great NFL betting value here for the Dolphins. I think it’s time we start to give this team a little more credit than they have been receiving. 

The Dolphins lost in overtime to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals – both games that they should have won. Had they pulled those out, they’d actually be 4-1 and in first place in the AFC East. Their defense is stellar and their offense is finding ways to get the job done with Ryan Tannehill under center.

The Rams aren’t bad but I see this being a big challenge for them. They’re a dome team that plays better at home, that now has to go on the road and play outdoors. They’ll also be without top receiver Danny Amendola and it’s not as if they have much depth at the position. They’ll have a tough time moving the ball and scoring points.

Home-field advantage will be the key to this game. I like the Dolphins at 3.5 and even more so at three, if you can find it. Be sure to shop around to find th best NFL odds.

Pick: Dolphins -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans 

I simply don’t see how the Tennessee Titans compete in this game. Running back Chris Johnson is their only weapon on offense and he’s been nothing short of a disaster this season. He’s been held under 25 yards rushing in four of the five games he’s played this season; Pittsburgh won’t allow him to get loose. 

Jake Locker missed Week 5 with a separated non-throwing shoulder and he’s likely to miss Week 6 too. Even if he plays, he hasn’t performed like a starting-caliber quarterback. Backup Matt Hasselbeck has nothing left as a starter. He needed to complete 26 passes just to get to 200 yards passing last week.

Read SBR's early picks & leans for this game.

Beyond that, the Titans defense is the worst in the NFL. They’ve allowed 181 points through five games (36.2 per contest) and they’re on pace to allow more points than any other team in NFL history.

The Steelers are at 2-2 and looking up at the Ravens (4-1) and the Bengals (3-2). They can’t afford to take this game lightly. The Titans are 1-4 and have lost by an average of 24 points per game. Lay the points with Pittsburgh. 

NFL Picks: Steelers -6