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Season Record: 9-7-3 (+3.7 units)

Tom BradySometimes you feel like a kid in a candy store with too many NFL betting options to choose from and you know if you buy everything you want, you’re gonna be sick in the morning. It’s kind of the way I feel about making my NFL picks in Week 6…I like just about everything!

But dammit, we have to think about money management! We must temper our enthusiasm and try to avoid getting to wound up in our own hype. Are you reading this Brock Landers? Without anymore fanfare, let’s get down to business and make some money this week. Good luck boys! 

Over 54 Dallas/Patriots 

The Patriots have gone over in 14 of their last 16 games and have gone high in 17 of 23 at home. Yeah I know, you were the ones that bet the over on those rare occasions that it went under. But look here, we know both offenses can score. We also know that the Patriots defense is suspect and Romo and Company have had a week off to formulate a game plan to keep putting the ball in the end zone.

I know 54 is a big total for the NFL but these teams put up high octane numbers. You wanna be sharp and take advantage of what may be perceived as a bloated total, that’s fine. Me, I’m gonna crack open a cold one and cheer like a square when the scoreboard lights up all game long. Play over 54 for 2 units. 

Eagles at Redskins 

The only thing that concerns me here is that the Skins are rested after coming off a bye week while the Eagles were spitting the bit against the Bills. Look, the Eagles are no dream team but seeing as we’ve avoided backing them all season long, maybe it’s time to dip our toe into the icy waters of Eagledom. The Skins remind me of the Bills. A good team that may be overvalued while Philly is the team everyone just loves to hate.

Do you think Vick will toss another interception this week? Hmm, maybe but not more than one as the Eagles roll in DC this week. Philly is 13-6 ATS away after a straight up loss as chalk the week before. The Eagles -2 is the play for 3 units. 

Rams at Packers 

The Rams had last week off to sit and reflect on why their performance has been so abysmal this season. They are 0-4 and are playing the best team in the NFL at home. We’ve seen plenty of blowouts this year in games where the teams are fairly evenly matched (did you watch the 49’ers pound the Bucs last week 48-3 as only 3 point favorites?).

Here we have the world champs squaring off against the world chumps. It looks too easy doesn’t it? Yeah, it does and there are a few stats to back the Rams in this spot. The Packers are 0-5 when favorites of 14 points or more and the Rams are a perfect 4-0 against the number over the last four years when coming off a bye week. 

Damn those statistics! Let’s be reasonable. Every team is different and those Packer teams that failed to cover as two touchdown favorites in the past were not the 2011 Packers. Sure their defense might let the Rams score but can St. Louis really contain Aaron Rodgers and his fleet footed assassins? I say nay! Back the Pack -14 for 3 units.

Bills at Giants 

It isn’t often that the underdog is the square play but that’s exactly the case here as the 4-1 Bills travel to the Meadowlands to meet a Giants team that last week cost Suicide Pool players everywhere to donate their cash and wait til next year.

Let’s face it, the Bills would have lost that game against the Eagles had Vick not turned the ball over early and often. They let Philly back into that game when they should have buried them. Buffalo is a vastly improved team and a huge surprise this season but they will sputter and it begins this week. 

For those of you who love the numbers, here we go. The Giants are 6-0 ATS against .666 or better opposition with revenge and Eli Manning is 6-3 ATS at home versus a team off a straight up underdog win. Series history (Giants 5-1 ATS last six) between these clubs gives us more to think about but the Bills’ 0-8 ATS mark on the road in October versus an opponent off a double-digit SU loss (like the Giants) just screams, “Bet the Giants you sick bastards!” Play the Giants -3 for 4 units.

Texans at Ravens 

The Texans are a hurtin’ group and they are playing the thuggish Ravens in Week 6. That’s like going into a cage match to rest your weary bones. Houston will be without their chaos maker Mario Williams on the defensive line and will probably be without the embarrassingly talented Andre Johnson at wideout. If you think Arian Foster will run roughshod over the Ravens think again. Baltimore allows a paltry 72 yards per game on the ground.

Hurricane Joe Flacco (you heard that nickname here first) has enough weapons to keep the Texans buried throughout. This line has continued to rise since Baltimore opened as 6 point faves (due primarily to Johnson’s status) and now we must take the plunge by laying 8. That is the only reason this is not a 5 unit platinum play. Back the Ravens -8 for 4 units. 

Reggie Bush

Dolphins at Jets 

Boys, this game's opening spread started with the Fins getting 9 but it has tumbled all the way down to 7 at this point. There’s a damn good reason for this Miami heat and I shall explain thusly. Last season the Jets were walloped by the Pats in Week 13 and hosted Miami the following week as 5 point favorites. They lost that game outright and this year’s edition of the J-E-T-S is not comparable to last years’.

Sure the Fish are winless but winless teams (0-4) coming off a bye week are an astounding 22-3 ATS. And finally, recent history (last 11 games) will illustrate that all these games are close with only one exception (a 27 point blowout by the Jets). This is a great spot for a big play. Dolphins + 7 ½ (buying the hook) (-125) for 5 units.

As always, if you have a problem with my picks or predictions, let yourself be heard. Come on over to my NFL betting thread in the forum and tell us what you think.