Once again our biggest play clicked but we stumbled with the smaller unit plays. All in all we lost a few bucks from our bankroll but we are still plus money for the year.
Click the media player
directly below to hear his podcast.
How did Swinger do?
long and short of it is we went 1-2-1 with last week's NFL Picks,but our biggest play, of the 4 unit
variety on San Diego, dispensed with the Ravens 34-14 as a 3 point underdog. Norv’s Chargers have a penchant for getting
up big, just as they did last year, late in the season when the season is
came by way of Minnesota and Denver, both big home dogs squaring off against
prolific offenses and legendary passers. Unfortunately for us, Tom Brady and Drew Brees missed the memo from
Roger Goodell that they were both due for a letdown. It is the National Football Lottery after all
and at least some semblance of gambling parity demands that the very good teams
overlook the weaker teams. Don’t believe
me? Ask Aaron Rodgers how that perfect
season looks now as he and his Packers bowed to the Chiefs. The Chiefs of all teams!
guys, I think that’s why many of us are squares at heart. Because when the winners blow up the
competition as New England and New Orleans did on Sunday, we kick ourselves and
think, well that makes perfect sense because the Pats and the Saints are
arguably two of the best teams in the NFL and who can keep pace with these
guys? The easy answer is that good teams
with strong defenses can hang and bang but bad teams cannot. But doesn’t Denver have a decent
defense? Back and forth we go with
hindsight as our only compass.
To buy or not to buy the hook, that
is the question!
some very respectable NFL handicappers that will swear up and down that buying a
hook will not only shave years off your bankroll and do nothing but bring
misery to your bottom line. I can almost
hear Justin 7 snickering at the Great Unwashed Masses like myself who refuse to
lay 3 ½ or even 7 ½ on the chalk of their choice. I know a handicapper (ok, he’s a square
bettor) who will never lay a half point no matter the number as he refuses to
get edged by that insidious hook.
there a happy medium? How about laying 4
½? Isn’t four a relatively important
number? Shall we go the extra mile and
include 10 ½, 14 ½, 17 ½ and even 21 ½ to that list? Personally, I understand both arguments. But then again if you think half a point will
be the difference between winning and pushing in NFL betting, then why play the game at all if
it’s that tight?
your attention to the Detroit Lions last Sunday who played the Oakland
Raiders. We were fortunate enough to get
them at -1 but the NFL odds soared to 2 ½ by game time. For a measly 10 cents I could have bought them to minus ½ and gotten the
cover (Lions won 28-27) instead of a push. But I have a reputation to maintain and I refuse to be known as a
hooker. Besides my sister already has
that vocation sewn up and she’s got a very jealous pimp.
Tell me your
My number is my number
I write my
NFL article and create the accompanying podcast on Friday. Oftentimes the line moves unfavorably away
from my selections if one is to wait and bet them on game day. While the less cynical posters would be
lauding my prescient handicapping abilities, others believe I am bumping the
line in my direction. Scandalous…and
untrue. Of course that’s a nifty little
technique many touts use but I assure you if we are not truthful here at SBR
then we are simply the same old, same old and might as well resort to padding
our record while we’re at it.
The fact of
the matter is I use the best line available at SBR odds located at the top of
the page. In fact, there was a span of
time on Saturday that both my big underdogs (Minny and Denver) jumped a point
or more above the 7 ½ I got on both heavy underdogs. Both lines eventually fell at game time to
roughly the numbers I submitted in my article. Let’s not forget that my Vikings + 7 ½ came at a cost of -125.
1. Green Bay Packers (13-1) – Based on the look of Aaron Rodgers’
face late in the game he didn’t seem to mind much that the Packers perfect
season had evaporated on the field of Arrowhead Stadium. I don’t think anyone would argue that Rodgers
is content to lose a ping pong game let alone a football game but the pressure
to remain perfect is no longer a burden. Though they did sputter against the amped up Chiefs, one loss will not
topple them from their lofty perch.
2. New Orleans Saints (11-3) – Drew Brees continues his assault on
NFL secondaries and he connected for 5 touchdowns and 412 yards of passing for
a brilliant 149.2 quarterback rating. Now I realize there others on this team but I’m not quite sure who they
are. All I know is that Drew Brees is a
Hall of Famer in the making as he closes in on Dan Marino’s single season
3. New England Patriots (11-3) – Anything you can do I can do better
seems to be the mantra Tom Terrific chants every time he takes the field. His counterpart Tim Tebow was the story but
it was Tom Brady who piled up 312 yards of passing to go along with 2 passing
touchdowns as well as a rare rushing TD. Tebow, God love him (and he does, just ask Tim), got exposed and the
Patriots got a big win and a cover in Mile High.
4. San Francisco 49’ers (11-3) – I have not been a huge believer in the Niners this season
because they play in the weakest division and their schedule is almost
laughable. But they did knock off one of
the big boys on Monday night when they took Big Ben and the Steelers to the
woodshed with a dominating 20-3 performance.
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-4) – The Ravens had the misfortune of
getting the Chargers while they’re hot last weekend. Their punishing defense was no match for the
San Diego juggernaut but then again any time this team takes to the highway
they are a different team than the one who plays so superbly at home.
As always, this recap will be a in a sticky thread posted in the NFL Betting Forum and simultaneously posted in Players Talk. I want to hear your thoughts, opinions and comments so post at the bottom of this article or in the thread.