Join us as we follow the Week 15 NFL odds all the way to kickoff, helping you decide when and where to place your NFL picks. How are we predicting the lines to move, and when will the value show up?
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NFL Picks Week 15: Saturday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
NFL Line movement blog update
It’s just one day away from the rest of the NFL’s Week 15 games, and heavier action on these lines should start anytime now. With no college football to distract today, NFL Odds should be moving rapidly once again. Let’s take a look at a few lines that seem interesting or might be still holding some value despite it being Saturday.
The public still favors the New York Giants on the road this week in Atlanta, but despite 63% of bets coming in on the Giants, the Falcons have moved to -1 and now even -1 ½ and -2 in some instances. Not sure why this is other than some sharp money on Atlanta. Currently, via the SBR Consensus Data page, 68% of the money being bet is on the Falcons at home, so that might be the way to go, considering the smaller bets are on the Giants.
A line that still hasn’t settled is the Vikings in St. Louis to face the Rams this week. After opening at -3 Rams, lines are still scattered all over the place, some still at -3, and others all the way down to -1 Rams. Currently, the public and a majority of the money is on the Vikings, leading me to believe that the play is probably the Rams. Even though Adrian Peterson is going to run wild on them, I think the Rams can play solid enough to get this home win.
Finally, a line that has been a rollercoaster all week is the Colts in Houston to face the Texans. After opening at +10 ½ underdogs, the Colts plummeted to +8 and +8 ½. However, now that we are at the end of the week, the line has slowly been bet right back up almost to where it started. I know the Colts are tempting, but unless it’s in a teaser, I wouldn’t touch this spread.
Don't forget to check out my Prop picks for Week 15 NFL betting~
NFL Picks Week 15: Friday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
movement blog update
reached the 48 hour mark in Week 15 of the NFL, and lines have settled down
with the exception of a few holdouts. There may still be some value poking its’
head out, so let’s take a look at some of the games I have had my eye on this
Packers are taking nearly 95% of the money being wagered this week in their
game against the Bears in Chicago, and I can already tell you this smells like
a trap. I see no reason why the books have kept the line at an even +3 for the
home Bears, and there is literally 20 dollars being spent on the Packers for
every one dollar being spent on the Bears. I think a value bet on Chicago might
be in order.
game very similar to that one is the Lions on the road in Arizona this week to
face the Cardinals. Detroit is taking nearly 94% of the money being wagered on
this game. It’s not nearly as much as the money on Green Bay this week, but it
is still 13 dollars on the Lions for every one spent on the Cardinals.
a game getting plenty of action is the 49ers on the road in New England this
weekend. The Pats are -5 ½ favorites in most shops, and even though the line
hasn’t settled, I’m betting it will settle around there or -6 for the Patriots.
New England is taking over 70% of the money being wagered in this one, but I
doubt the books are rooting for the Niners that much, because I’m sure they
have plenty of teasers that have the Niners taking over ten points.
NFL Picks Week 15: Thursday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
Thursday is here, which means the official kick off to Week 15 of the NFL is here at
last. Sunday will be here before you know it, which means if you haven’t
already, now is the time to start thinking about the NFL. Let’s take a look at
the game this evening, and check out others as well to see if value still is
poking its’ head out.
this evening between the Bengals and Eagles, Cincinnati comes in as a -4 road
favorite. The Bengals opened at -3, but were quickly bet up to four points
earlier in the week. While everyone is looking at the Eagles as a lost cause
right now, it wouldn’t surprise me if the books took advantage of that and they
had a good ATS record to finish the season. I normally don’t like Thursday games
because they are so fluky, and I’m including this one in there as well.
Read our final spread picks for tonight's matchup.
sure why, but the public is all over the Saints right now laying -3 ½ at home
this week against the Bucs. I myself would fade Joe public on this one and go
the other way. The Saints’ offense is great, however their defense may be one
of the NFL’s worst. Tampa Bay on the other hand can actually stop people
sometimes. It is mostly on the ground, but still, I think the -3 ½ is a trap.
that Robert Griffin III will play (or at least try to being less than 100%) in
Sunday’s game in Cleveland has pushed the early two lines up from a pick em to
-1 in favor of the road Redskins. If Griffin does play, he is going to be less
than 100%. So, if the Skins get hyped up all week once Griffin’s status is
confirmed, taking a few points with the Browns might be the way to go. They
have won three straight and their defense is giving up only 12 points per game
over those three games.
NFL Picks Week 15: Wednesday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
reached the middle of the work week already, and it seems like only yesterday
that I was sitting on my couch watching the Week 14 games. The NFL betting lines are ripe
and ready for picking this week, and we have several key matchups ATS and for
appears that after some action on the Packers, that the Bears will be an even
+3 home underdog against the Packers this weekend. This game will be for
control of the NFC North with two games to go, and after word that Jay Cutler’s
injury wasn’t as serious as some thought, it appears that Chicago might be a
good bet. I know they haven’t beaten the Bears in a while, but I also know that
the Packers are not invincible this season like in the last two seasons.
NFL Picks: Packers vs. Bears
still get the line between the Vikings and Rams anywhere from -1 Rams to -3
Rams. Right now I can say that getting St. Louis by -1 right now is good value.
St. Louis is an average football team, and the Vikings were a playoff
contender, but have showed their true colors recently. I really like the Rams
in this one, so get it at -1 while you can before it shoots up to -3 ½ or
Vikings vs. Rams: NFL Picks
Colts are dropping ever so steadily, as they opened at +9 ½ underdogs, and are
now shrinking to +9 and +8 ½. I think everyone including the public saw that 9
½ points were too high, and you can probable expect it to drop a little bit
before kickoff. Andrew Luck is a back door covering machine this season, and
the Texans’ defense has look awful in the last month.
NFL Picks Week 15: Tuesday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
It's Tuesday, but we are still seeing opening line fluctuation and some
spreads still not up and ready for action. Let’s look at a few of the
more interesting lines and see if there is value in any of the Week 15 NFL odds.
appear that the Giants are sticking as +1 underdogs in Atlanta this weekend,
but there's still plenty of time for that to change. However, I’m not waiting for
it, too. I know the Falcons are a good team playing at home. However, the Giants
turned the corner this weekend, and I think it’s a good possibility that the
Falcons lose. As long as New York’s defense can disrupt the Falcon offense,
they will get the win. I don’t even think Atlanta is one of the three best
teams in the NFL right now, so take a look at the G-Men.
Bears are a +3 home underdog against the visiting Packers this Sunday, in what
will surely be a nice friendly game of football here in December - yeah, right. As expected, early money is all over Green Bay, and why would you blame anyone for
betting Green Bay. And, this is coming from a Bears fan. Chicago has been decimated
by injuries; Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings will both likely be out of this
game. Plus, Jay Cutler is banged up with a neck injury after getting pummeled
in last week’s game. I’m running as far away from this game as possible.
The Redskins head to
Cleveland - in what is so far an unlined game - to face the Browns; this is absolutely because of the
uncertainty behind Robert Griffin III, who has a Grade 1 knee sprain (mild) and
is questionable for Week 15. We should know more by tomorrow’s practice.
NFL Picks: Week 15 Opening Odds
By: Jordan Sharp -
on Thursday night, where the Bengals are -3 road favorites in Philadelphia to
face the Eagles. Cincinnati lost in the last seconds of their game against
Dallas in Week 14, and with that loss it dropped them out of the playoff
picture for now. Now on the road against a slowly improving Eagles team, this
looks like a must win for the Bengals. Currently over 70% of bets coming in are
on the Bengals, so be cautious and watch the line movement today.
Read our report on this game's opening odds for our early predictions.
opening as a pick em, the Giants are +1 underdogs against the Falcons in
Atlanta this weekend. After an impressive win over the Saints, the Giants find
themselves a one or even a two point underdog against a team that lost last
week. Alas, the Falcons’ road woes are neither here nor there this week,
because this game is in the Georgia Dome. The Giants will probably settle
around +2 ½ underdogs before Sunday.
Seahawks are a -4 favorite this week, but they are of course, on the road in
Buffalo. The Hawks are a desperate 2-5 SU on the road this season, and the
public is coming right into the giant money trap. The Bills may have looked
awful last week, but this is a team that at any given moment can drop 30 points
on a team. Seattle’s defense is good, but so is Buffalo’s. If the NFL betting lines gets too
high expect it to come back down. Especially if it gets to a touchdown.
Steelers are in Dallas this weekend and the line is dead even at a pick em. The
Steelers have a slight edge in the money but nothing too serious, and I expect
it to stay around a pick em throughout the week. These two teams are really
close this season in talent, and they don’t play one another that often, so
this one is as interesting as ever. The Steelers are hanging onto the final
wildcard spot in the AFC with three games to play, while the Cowboys are two games
back of the Bears for the final NFC wildcard. Both look at this one as a must
win. I would lay off.
Sunday night should be another great game, as the 49ers travel east into
Boston to face off against the Patriots. New England has opened up as a -3 home
favorite, and I think much like the above mentioned Steelers versus Cowboys
game, we’re going to see some action on both sides of this line. Pending
tonight’s result against the Texans, the Pats will come in as the public’s
favorite. I also think that the Pats will beat the Texans this evening, so if
you are in the same line of thinking as I am, I suggest you lay the points for
next week while also laying them for tonight. New England is like doubling down
on a 10 or 11 in blackjack right now.