With only one month left in the regular season, we better start cracking down and making our NFL picks really count. Inside you'll find two plays that look almost too good to pass up. Are you on the right side?

Before we get to the picks, make sure you check out our NFL handicapping forums pronto! It's a great tool to use as you find what other cappers are thinking, while also getting different perspectives on the games. Don't miss out.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Jets 

Yeah, I'm backing the Jets with my NFL football picks, one week after getting embarrassed 49-19 by the New England Patriots. What are you going to do about it?

Mark SanchezTruth is, while both teams are 4-7 SU on the season, the Cardinals have won just one of their five road matchups and are on a miserable seven-game losing streak. 

Ryan Lindley has taken over the starting QB job, and though he threw for over 300 yards against the St. Louis Rams last weekend, he was also picked off four times and failed to account for a touchdown. The Jets may be a forgettable #19 in total defense, but their pass defense (211.3 YPG allowed, #7 in NFL) has actually been strong for the most part. 

If New York comes out like I think they will, pissed off after a god awful showing against the Patriots, they should be able to stop Lindley in his tracks. 

The Jets have performed relatively well after losses, going 5-2 ATS over their last seven games following straight up defeats. They'll tackle an Arizona team that's gone 1-6-1 ATS over their last eight games.

Rex Ryan's boys have also had some extra time to get ready for this matchup and I'm of the belief they'll come out and beat the Cardinals by at least a touchdown. As such, the NFL odds makers have set the spread at 4.5, and it is looking quite good at the moment. 

NFL Pick: New York Jets -4.5

Read our "NFL Picks: Cardinals vs. Jets" for a full game preview.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos

Both the Buccaneers and Broncos are playing great football right now, but no one's hotter than Denver.

Peyton Manning is playing as well as he ever has and has led the Broncos to six straight wins, four of which were on the road. 

Peyton ManningNow Denver returns to Mile High, where they're classified as nine-point favorites in the NFL odds. Seems a little high up against an upstart Bucs team, but the Broncos are #4 in both total offense and defense and could very well overwhelm Tampa Bay.

So, instead I'm going with a play on the total. The OVER has gone 7-1 in Tampa Bay's last eight games and 5-2 in Denver's last seven. Can you tell which way I'm leaning? 

In years past I would've been wary on backing an OVER when the Buccaneers are involved, but Josh Freeman has been terrific and they have a lot of playmakers surrounding him now. Doug Martin is a bonafide star now and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams continue to make big catches downfield.

I feel like there's going to be a lot of significant-yardage plays in this game, with two confident passers chucking it to Martin/Jackson/Williams on one side and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the other. Therefore, let's not be scared away from this reasonably high total. 

NFL Pick: OVER 50

Be sure to browse through our NFL section for more picks on Week 13's slate. Best of luck to all!