Thursday Night Football will feature a battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans. Find out which team we are predicting to cover the spread, and how we believe you should place your NFL picks in Week 6's opening game.

In a separate article I have already released a 10* graded play on the UNDER. With that said, bettors could consider playing a parlay not to exceed a 3* amount combining the side play on the Steelers and the total play UNDER. For those of you, who like teasers, of which I am not a fan of, I do see the combination of the Steelers and UNDER working successfully. 

The Technicals

Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s take a look at the technical side of this NFL pick supporting the Steelers. Here is a system based on the money line that has gone a remarkable 33-8 for 81% winners and has made 30.2 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on any team using the money line and is mistake-free team averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. and is now facing a team that has not been opportunistic averaging just 1.25 or fewer forced turnovers per game. 

This is a money line system and for those, who like playing the money line, laying -210 with the Steelers is a very acceptable risk. I will, however, play this game as outlined above. The money line does underscore some of the vast differences in these teams and why I believe Pittsburgh will win this game easily against the spread. 

The Steelers were the first team to out-stat the Eagles in their last second come from behind win last Sunday. They will now have defensive pro bowler Harrison back in the lineup and this will certainly offset the loss of Polamalu. This defensive unit ranks fifth best in the NFL currently and is only going to get better as the loop moves into the weeks ahead.

Simulator Projections

The NFL odds makers have listed the Steelers as 6 point favorites, but the simulator shows a high probability that the Steelers will win this game by eight or more points. It further projects that the Steelers will score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, where the Steeler offense has scored this measure of offensive production they are a solid 10-5 ATS the past three seasons and 54-30 ATS since 1992. 

The Tennessee defense is projected to allow the Steelers to gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards per play. In past games where the defense has allowed this amount of yards per play they are a dismal 1-7 ATS over the past three seasons. The Titans offense will not be running smoothly either projected to gain less than 300 total yards. Again, not good news for the Titans as they are a money burning 1-6 ATS when gaining less than 300 offensive yards in games played over the past three seasons.

Read my "Steelers vs. Titans Early picks" article for my thoughts on the opening odds.

The Savior Is Back

In a post game interview with the media, Steeler quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger stated, that “Our savior is back and it was great to see him back out there and he did a great job”. He was referring to the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who gained 81 rushing yards and had two catches for 20 yards in the win over the Eagles.

His confidence is high and having your quarterback proclaim the good news about him will make him even better in this matchup. The Titans will not be able to stop mendenhall and the Steeler ground game. What makes Roethlisberger very happy, is that the strong running game takes pressure off of him to make plays to win games. Moreover, it opens up play action pass routes against a very suspect Titan defensive secondary.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Steelers.