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10/23/2013 8:03:00 AM
Josh Freeman was not ready to start for the Minnesota Vikings last week. And the Week 8 NFL lines aren’t optimistic about his chances this week against the Green Bay Packers.
record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to October 21 inclusive:
ML (+0.71 units)
Even when you think your latest brilliant
NFL bet is a deadbolt lock, there’s almost always a sweat. I had UNDER 47.5 in
Monday night’s incredibly
awful matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Giants. It cashed
in with room to spare when the Giants won 23-7, but the two teams kept trying
to give each other points. Almost all of Minnesota’s production was on special
teams, most notably that 86-yard punt return TD by Marcus Sherels.
Which brings us to our next very special
episode of Sunday Night Football
(8:30 p.m. ET, NBC), where the Vikings will try to get it right against their
NFC North rivals, the visiting Green Bay Packers. The football lines have
Minnesota getting 10 points at the Metrodome. Is there any fight in this dog?
Not according to the nearly-unanimous consensus in support of the Packers.
Tune into our NFL odds page for a comprehensive list of books and lines~
I think we can all agree that Josh Freeman
was not sufficiently prepared for his Vikings debut. His was the worst
performance of any quarterback in Week 7 according to Football Outsiders, who
clocked Freeman at minus-136 Total DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above
Replacement). He was winging the ball over his intended targets all night long,
completing just 20 of 53 passes for 190 yards and one interception.
But how much of this can we truly blame on
Freeman’s coaches for starting him underprepared? Here’s a look at Freeman’s
first three games of the season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
1 (at New York Jets): minus-31 DYAR, 15-of-31, 210
yards, one TD, one INT
2 (vs. New Orleans): minus-74 DYAR, 9-of-22, 125
yards, one TD, one INT
3 (at New England): minus-13 DYAR, 19-of-41, 236
yards, zero TDs, one INT
Looks like Freeman’s performance in Week 7
was pretty much in line with what lost him his job in Tampa Bay. That doesn’t
mean that Minnesota was wrong to give Freeman a shot at the starting gig, given
their limited expectations with Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel. But until
Freeman shows some of that 2011 Pro Bowl form (okay, he was an alternate pick),
why should we put our hard-earned money on him when we bet on the NFL?
Did you see my other pick on the Patriots vs. Dolphins?
Hey, did you know there’s an NFL team in
Green Bay, Wisc.? Crazy, I know. The football betting public seems to have
forgotten all about QB Aaron Rodgers – you remember, the MVP with the Super
Bowl ring who isn’t Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Rodgers is quietly enjoying
yet another quality season, completing 65 percent of his passes and posting a
104.5 passer rating. Ho-hum.
Wait a second… is this 2012? The Packers
lost their season opener to the San Francisco 49ers, then lost in Week 3 before
eventually righting the ship. Same thing this year: Green Bay has won its last
three games SU and ATS to take the division lead. But it hasn’t come without a cost.
WR Randall Cobb (broken leg) and TE Jermichael Finley (bruised spinal cord) are
both out for extended periods of time, depriving Rodgers of two of his favorite
That’s not going to stop me from fading
Minnesota this week in my NFL picks. The Packers have other weapons in their arsenal, including
rookie RB Eddie Lacy (4.2 yards per carry), and the Vikings had the No. 27
ranked defense in the league before losing to the Giants.
Minnesota is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS and one step away from joining the Teddy
Bridgewater Sweepstakes. Maybe that’s been the plan all along.
Pick: Take the Packers –9.5 at William Hill