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9/1/2013 3:32:00 PM
Two teams that should be much improved from a season ago open up against one another in Week 1, as the Dolphins travel into Cleveland to play the Browns.
The NFL Odds for this matchup are an even pick em’, with a total of only 41
points. Let’s take a deeper look into this game and see where we can find value
for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Browns brought in Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner to run the Browns this season,
and I think it will end up being a really good hire. Chudzinski used to coach
with the Browns several years ago, and Turner of course has head coaching
experience coming into being the offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Turner’s
offense should do wonders for the likes of Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson
especially. With the exception of their preseason Week 3 hiccup, the Browns’
offense has looked much better than their stagnant excuse for an offense a year
ago. While they will be without their star receiver, Josh Gordon for this game,
I still think we could see some high powered offense coming from Cleveland.
Dolphins are entering their second year under Joe Philbin, and they have
blindly stocked up on talent this offseason in an effort to try and compete in
the AFC East. Although their spending spree wasn’t as productive as they would
have hoped, they did bring in several playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Mike Wallace will likely feast in this game against a vulnerable Browns
secondary, and if Ryan Tannehill can take that next step as a young quarterback
in the NFL, this team will go as far as he can take them.
game, I think both of these second year quarterbacks will want to show off
their new system and weapons. Both defenses are good, but the secondaries of
both teams have shown some weakness during the preseason. Both of these
defenses are still evolving, and with a new system in Cleveland, things might
be a little shaky at first on that side of the ball. Offense normally trumps
defense in the first week or two of the NFL season, and I think that may be the
result in this game.
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The Sharp Pick
starters, these two teams averaged around 19 points per game last season, and
both have made tremendous strides on the offensive end. I would be really
surprised if they averaged below 20 points per game again this season, and with
a total of only 41 points, I think the NFL Odds are discounting the
improvements both of these offenses have made.
is needed for the total to go over is 3 touchdowns from each team, or two
touchdowns and two field goals for each, and in Week 1, I don’t think that’s
asking too much. Last season in Week 1, the ‘Over; was 9-7, and in the first
two weeks of the season, the total went 18-14 in favor of the ‘Over’. Teams
that are learning new defensive schemes will be behind, and with the new
offense in Cleveland, the ‘Over’ for this game seems to be the best value play for our NFL picks.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 41 at 5 Dimes