NFL week 3 offers a dynamic mix of tight betting lines and big-point spreads as well, navigating through which can test even the most savvy bettor to find where the smart picks are.
NFL Week 3 – Sunday Night Football Smart Money
Fortune favours the brave, so they say. So join us as we rundown through some
choice Sunday Night Football games and try to identify the best NFL picks for the games.
Houston Texans (-2.5) at
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)
Analysis: Before getting to nitty- gritty details, it should be pointed out
that this spread opened at -1. Now it’s moved up to -2.5. But it doesn’t change
much, really. All in all, this should be a slugfest, a tight defensive battle
that will end on an equally tight score.
Much is being made
about the Super Bowl champions not getting enough respect in this game by being
tipped at the disadvantage overall – listed at +115 on the NFL odds boards to win outright and at +2.5
on the spread. But those that are of that opinion are simply overrating the
Ravens (1-1, 1-0). They aren’t as good as their Super Bowl credentials suggest.
Not at all. Simply put, Flacco is without the weapons he enjoyed last year –
especially Anquan Boldin without whom he can do less damage against the
opposition. Texans defense, which boasts J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing, has to
have the edge over a Ravens offense that fails to excite much tempo on the
Much is being made
about the Texans having to twice comeback from behind to win. Point is they did
it and got the crucial W with a 31-28 win over the Chargers and a 30-24 win in
OT over the Titans. Granted, last week’s game was a case of the walking wounded
for the Texans (2-0, 1-0) and they could be without their beloved left tackle Duane
Brown for the Ravens game – what could be a problem against their solid defense.
But if Brown does miss week 3 Ryan Harris would step in for him reportedly and
he is with some starting experience from his days with the Broncos.
Winning is winning,
even if it is ugly. Good teams know how to win and the Texans (listed at -135
to win straight up) have shown us just how good they can be in the face of
adversity and when the chips are down. While Baltimore Ravens are at home and
could very well defy the odds and turn this market on its head, we’re going to
stick with the bookies here and take the road Texans to win straight up and cover for our
Free Picks: Texans -2.5 at bet365
Arizona Cardinals (+7.0) at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
(2-0, 1-0 home) consistently get underrated at home where they are 17-5 ATS in
their last 22 home games. A seven-point spread – if we take away the typical
three-point value assigned to home edge – means that the Saints are only
four-points better than the Cardinals. Now while the Cardinals are a physical
team with a very physical defense at the Superdome the Saints have to be
considered better than the 4-point difference. This is Drew Brees’ stomping
ground and his offense will surely harass even a respectable Cardinals defense.
Don’t forget as well that the Saints’ defense has been revamped by Rob Ryan and
have played a significant role in the 2-0 start on the season.
Picks: New Orleans Straight up and to cover
Indianapolis Colts (+10.0) at San Francisco
After the forgettable
routing in the Emerald City it’s hard to imagine the San Francisco 49ers losing
at home. They have a point to prove, critics to silence. Now a 10-point spread
is quite large, one of the larger ones this week but the 49ers are a side that
can get the ball rolling. They are that good. Forget last week’s debacle. And
if things go their way, they could run up the scoreboard just because they can
and that makes
the 49ers the smart pick here. Now much is being made of the Colts’
acquisition of Trent Richardson – which is a good move, make no mistake – but
the Colts are still with overrated Andrew Luck and several key positions short
of talent. Hard to imagine the Colts would roll into San Fran to do any damage.
It’s just a shame for Richardson that his debut will be in San Francisco, when
the 49ers are chomping for retribution.
Free Picks: San Francisco Straight up and to