We have posted our early lean and then a little while later our play on the total for this match-up. Now however, here is the long awaited Spread Pick for the Eagles vs. the Cowboys!
SBR NFL Feature: November 30
Jason’s 2012 NFL Record
Through Week 12:
9-4 ML (+6.37 units)
vs. Cowboys: Betting the Spread
The Dallas Cowboys are finally getting some good news on the injury
front. And the NFL lines have taken notice, making the Cowboys double-digit
favorites for their Sunday Night Football
matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s been another one of those years for the Cowboys (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS).
But they can still get into the playoffs, and their next game is against the
Eagles, who are having a much worse go of it at 3-8 SU and 1-9-1 ATS. When I
first wrote about this matchup, Dallas had opened as a 6.5-point chalk over at
bwin. Naturally, I was fading the Eagles.
I love early-bird shopping. If you haven’t already jumped on Sunday’s
game (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) and you want the Cowboys, it’ll cost you. The Week 13
NFL odds have moved Dallas all the way to –10 and even higher, depending on
where you shop.
Don Juan DeMarco
The departure of Eagles DE Jason Babin (5.5 sacks) definitely has
something to do with this line move. But while Philadelphia is losing pieces,
Dallas is adding them. Not only is the offensive line starting to get healthy
again – as I noted in my article about Sunday night’s total –, but we’ve also received word that RB DeMarco
Murray (4.4 yards per carry, 17 catches) might be able to play after
participating in a limited fashion in Thursday’s practice.
This can’t come soon enough for Dallas fans. Felix Jones (3.6 yards per
carry) has been bothered by bad knees and hasn’t been able to carry the load in
Murray’s absence. Of course, it’s been a nightmare season for anyone in the
backfield behind the Dallas offensive line, but Murray would be a definite
upgrade if he can play.
The Dallas Morning News says
that “all signs” point to Murray’s return on Sunday after missing the last six
games. We shall see. Dallas was 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS during that stretch. Note,
however, that Murray does not appear on Chad Millman’s PSVAR (Point Spread
Value Above Replacement) rankings.
Don't forget to review my pick on the TOTAL for this contest!
Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, it appears that center Dallas Reynolds will
miss this game after sitting out Thursday’s practice with a sprained ankle. Hoo
boy. The plan is to move Evan Mathis to center and put Danny Watkins at right
guard. RT King Dunlap (knee) is a go after participating fully in Thursday’s practice.
As if the Eagles needed another opportunity to shuffle their offensive
line. This has been even more of a nightmare scenario than the Cowboys have
been facing. It’s cost the Eagles their starting QB, Michael Vick (79.2 passer
rating, 5.4 yards per carry), and their starting RB, LeSean McCoy (4.2 yards
per carry), both out with concussions. Neither man is close to returning.
Philadelphia is 0-2 SU and ATS since Vick was injured in Week 10 –
against the Cowboys (–1 away) in a 38-23 loss. Nick Foles has a 65.3 passer
rating in relief of Vick, throwing one TD pass and three picks while scrambling
for zero yards. Bryce Brown (6.3 yards per carry) has had a couple of long
bursts subbing for McCoy, but also lost two fumbles in last week’s 30-22 loss
to the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point home dog.
I’m not a big fan of chalk, and I’d be taking the middle in this game
having already picked Dallas at –6.5. However, for those of you still thinking
about your NFL betting selections, I’m staying with the Cowboys. Put some
lingonberry sauce on that chalk, it’ll taste fine.
NFL Picks: Take the Cowboys –10
Have great luck with all of those NFL Picks this weekend, ladies and gentleman!