Having already produced a pick on the total, I'm back with a spread pick on the MNF matchup between the visiting Denver Broncos and AFC-leading San Diego Chargers. Let's take advantage of a line that's been demonstrating a great deal of movement.
Between Friday night and Saturday morning, some huge money apparently came in on the Broncos to win this
game. After opening at -2 ½ in favor of the Chargers earlier in the week, the line slowly
dropped to -1 Chargers by Friday. However, by Saturday
morning, a huge shift on this one had rolled in.
started with just a few books placing the game as a pick em by
late last night. However, around 10 AM EST, another apparent huge block of cash
came in on the Broncos. Now, one is hard pressed to find the Chargers as
betting favorites or, more likely, the Broncos as underdogs.
Most NFL odds currently have the game as a pick 'em with the juice on the Broncos,
or they have Denver as a -1 favorite. This game has now seen more movement in
the odds than any other game this week.
makes handicapping it a little more difficult. With line movement like this, it
means the sharps have a play in mind or that there was a major injury or setback to
the Chargers that just came out.
been monitoring news wires, but it doesn’t seem there was any ground
breaking news that warrants such a big shift in the odds. My initial reaction is to
follow the sharps, but we don’t need to lose value. However, if you feel as if
the play is the Broncos, I suggest you lay it now.
The Sharp Pick
folks, this is my pick, and I do indeed have a play in mind, and it might just
coincide with the sharps’ big movement on the Broncos. What’s ironic about this
big shift is that the Chargers have owned the Broncos of late. However,
this is a new season, and it changes even more with Peyton Manning as the
starter for Denver.
sake of arguing, I will note that the Broncos are only 3-7 SU in their last ten
games against the Chargers, and San Diego is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games
against the Broncos.
Broncos did win and cover in their last game against the Chargers, winning
16-13. That’s a Tim Tebow score if I’ve ever seen one, and his time in Denver
is long since over.
game, I like Manning and the Broncos. The trends are thrown out so far,
and even though the Chargers have been really good on defense this season, I
think Manning and the Broncos are going to click big time for this game. It’s
in warm weather, on a big stage, and you’ll see the best of Manning so far this
season. I like the Broncos to get the win.
Pick: Broncos -110