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NFL Picks: Saturday Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
is here, and while college football is the play of the day, the NFL is just 24
hours away. NFL odds have started to settle to where they will be
around kickoff, so let’s see if we can extract some last-second value from
Bears/Rams in Chicago has finally settled to -7 Chicago after
being anywhere from -7 ½ and -9 ½ throughout the week. A lot of bets came in on
the Rams, and the line has dropped. However, I always caution about reading too
much into last week’s games when handicapping this week, and I think this line
movement is a pure example of exactly that.
opening at +3 home underdogs, the Dolphins have been bet down to +1 underdogs. However, almost 70% of the bets that have come in have hit
on the Jets laying points on the road. I think a moneyline bet on the Dolphins
might be in order.
has settled to -3 favorites on the road in Arizona after
opening at -4. Sharps and the public may have hit this line on the same side,
because it dropped and the more money has come in on the Cardinals.
and Oakland has settled to -3 ½ in favor of the Steelers on the road after opening at -4 ½. Despite 66% of the bets coming in on the Steelers, the
line has dropped a full point, leading me to believe that someone out there
believes in the Raiders a lot.
After opening as a pick em, the Texans were bet up to be even -2 or -3
favorites. However, the action is starting to even out, and the Texans are down
to -1 and -1 ½ in most shops. You can still find Houston as much as -3
at Bovada, or a pick em at 5Dimes.
NFL Picks: Friday Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
are on the move, and there have been several games that have seen action over
the last 24-36 hours. Let’ dive right in, as we are only a few short days away
from the Week 3 NFL kickoff.
The Bengals and Redskins line continues to drop, and as I
mentioned in the opener, this line looked to be a bit high when it opened.
Already we are starting to see it dip below -3 Skins, after opening at -4 in
favor of Washington at home at home.
Bengals vs. Redskins Picks
Money is starting to come back the other way in the 49ers
versus Vikings game. After being bet up to -7, it has now dropped a half point
to -6 1/2 in favor of the 49ers. I'm still baffled a little bit by this line,
as I think the 49ers could very well be double-digit favorites in this one. But,
this is the NFL, and anything can happen.
Vikings vs. 49'ers Pick
The Miami Dolphins are starting to see some sharp action on
their spread taking points as a home team. That line has plummeted to -1 in
some cases, after opening at -3 Jets. Home underdogs are 8-3 against the spread
so far this season, and I suspect this could be another example of a slight
home underdog winning outright.
Jets vs. Dolphins Pick
Speaking of road underdogs, the Cardinals are also
continuing to see their line drop after opening as +4 underdogs at home against
Philadelphia. Some books have already dropped their line to -3 in favor of the
Eagles on the road. I suspect a lot of sharp action came in on the Cardinals
+4, however, I can't see this line dipping below -3 Eagles.
NFL Picks: Thursday Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
Thursday, and we are finally starting to see some more movement in the Week 3
NFL odds. The Thursday Night Football game might be the biggest of the week so
far, but other stagnant lines have been moving as well.
Giants will be without three key offensive starters in this game against the
Panthers, and after being favored by -1 ½ on the road, news yesterday of the starters
being out of the game has moved the line more in 24 hours then we
have seen all season. The line has moved four whole points, and now favors the
Panthers by -2 ½. Some books have it at -3.
finally starting to see some money come back in on the Bears against the Rams
this Sunday. The Bears are -9 at some books, and have started to move up
at the others, which have Chicago at -7 ½.
is also dropping after opening at +4 on the road against the Redskins. Now they
sit at +3, and I think the sharps and public might be on the same side in this
starting to come in on the Vikings taking points at home against the 49ers.
After the line moved up to -7 ½ from -6 when it opened, we are starting to see
it come down, and it is -6 ½ at some books. I have no idea who would be taking
points with Minnesota.
Miami is starting to see some sharp action taking points at home against
the Jets. I think the Dolphins have momentum, and the line is shrinking fast.
After opening at -3 in favor of the road Jets, the Dolphins have gone to +1 in
NFL Picks: Wednesday Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
just one day away from the official start of the Week 3 schedule, and so far,
the line movement has been stagnant. There is some action on certain sides, but
the lines have stayed somewhat close to where they started. For instance, 11 of
the 15 games this week have seen only a half point, or no movement at all.
Maybe the sharps are waiting for a number they like this week, so let’s take a
look at some of the NFL Odds that the sharps might be waiting on.
Night is still seeing 60% of the action on the Giants on the road, despite all
of their injury concerns. The Panthers aren’t without concern of their own on
this short week, but the Giants could be missing their starting running back
and center. On the road, these are two of the most important positions. The
sharp play might be the Panthers on the moneyline at home.
Read one cappers take on betting this game's total.
the news of two Washington starters missing the rest of the season, the Bengals
are now the play in the game between them and the Redskins. Washington is a
tough place to play, but without their two best defenders, this good defense
might just turn to average or worse.
70% of the bets coming in for the Cowboys vs. Bucs game have been on the Bucs
on the road, and I suspect that the money is somewhat even, because the line
Finally, the line is starting to rise in the Lions vs. Titans game this
week. After opening at -2 ½ in favor of the road Lions, the line has moved a
whole point to -3 1/2. With how bad the Titans have played, it doesn’t surprise
me. Their defense is not good.
NFL Picks: Week 3 Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp -
only Tuesday, and already the Week 3 NFL Odds are out and moving. Let’s take a
look at some of the games I have my eye on, and see if any value was bet in or
out of the numbers since Monday.
are seeing more action against the Bears on the road, and some books have the
number dropped all the way to -7 in favor of Chicago. This is understandable,
but the Bears are still vastly better than the Rams. I see people reading too
much into the Bears’ bad loss to the Packers. I think the Bears laying points
is the way to go in this one.
starting to see the line drop in the Cincinnati and Washington game. The
Bengals opened as +4 road dogs, and have dropped to +3 1/2. This could be due
to the injuries the Skins suffered last week.
opening at a questionable -6, the Niners are now favored by -7 on the road in
Minnesota this week. I still think there is a bunch of value in this game, so
take a leap now if you haven’t already.
interesting movement is going on between the Eagles and Cardinals. The Eagles
won their second straight 1-point game over the weekend, while the Cardinals
won on the road against the Patriots. This week, the Eagles are laying -4 on
the road, and the line is going up, despite most of the action on Arizona. I
thought the Cards taking points at home might be a good bet, considering home
dogs have been 8-3 ATS so far this season, but now I’m starting to doubt it a
bit. The public is on the Cardinals, but the number is going up. Looks as if
the sharps are on Philly early.
we are stating to see some movement in the Sunday night game between the
Patriots and Ravens. Some books have gone down to -2 ½ Ravens, and others even
have it at -1, after opening at -3 Ravens.
NFL Picks: Week 3 Opening Odds
By: Jordan Sharp -
is in the books, and now the odds makers are ready for Week 3. With most
sportsbooks having already released their Week 3 NFL Odds, I am already coming
across what I believe it potential value. This looks like it could be another week
where we want to jump on the lines early, so pay attention and lets begin
looking at the opening odds for Week 3.
on Thursday night, where after coming off a big win at home against the Saints,
the Panthers welcome in the Giants on the short week. Both teams were involved
in shootout wins Sunday afternoon, and I’m sure this one will be quite the
The NFL betting lines have opened in favor of the Giants at -1, and we have already seen a
majority of the action hit the New York side. I do expect more people to bet
the Giants after Eli Manning’s 500+ yard performance against Tampa Bay.
However, I do expect some money to come back the other way if the line hits as
high as +3 Panthers.
opening game getting some attention is the Bears hosting the Rams. Even after
getting beat down by the Packers, and the Rams winning over the weekend,
Chicago still opened as a -9 ½ favorite. As you would expect, we have seen
action come in on the Rams, and the line is already down a half point to -9. I
think the Bears will play much better at home against St. Louis, and waiting
might be a good idea before you place your NFL picks here.
I’m very confused about is the opening line in the 49ers and Vikings game. San
Francisco takes their 2-0 record on the road this week to Minnesota. The
problem is two books have the line favoring San Francisco at -6. I don’t know
if I should go all in, or run as fast as I can the other way. The Niners didn’t
suffer any key injuries that I saw yesterday, and while the Vikings are in no
means a pushover, I’m thinking this line is about to skyrocket. I for instance
have this line closer to -9.
I’m staying away from is the Saints hosting the Chiefs. New Orleans opened as a
-9 ½ favorite, and the line has dropped to -9 already, even though 70% of the
early action is on the Saints. In no way do I trust the Chiefs yet, and I am on
a wait and see approach with New Orleans. Run away.
Bay visiting the Cowboys has already seen a whole point of movement since last
night. The Bucs opened as +8 road dogs, and have moved to +7. I will make an
emphasis to keep an eye on this interesting matchup throughout the week.
and Arizona is another one that should see some movement. Arizona is currently
a +4 underdog, and this is of course an east coast team traveling west. It
could pose problems for an Eagles team that escaped their second straight
one-point game with a win last week. Arizona is no joke either; did you see
what their defense did to Tom Brady in Week 2? I can already tell you it’s
tempting to tease that number up to +10 Arizona.
a rematch of the AFC Title game in 2011 will be our Sunday evening game in Week
3. The Ravens host the Patriots, and Baltimore is a -3 favorite, and already
seeing a majority of the bets. I expect this game to be pretty even with the
money, but early action might fluctuate the line some. Don’t expect it to move
too much one way or another.
always, you can catch my daily updates to this blog right here, every