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9/15/2010 12:00:00 AM
Arizona comes into this game 1-0 defeating the Rams 17-13 and
covered as 3 three point favorites. The Falcons had a tough assignment in
Pittsburgh and lost in overtime 15-9.
Both Arizona and Atlanta struggled with consistent execution on
offense with Arizona gaining a 'smoke and mirrors' 378 total yards and Atlanta
gaining 295 total yards.
Atlanta will have a far easier time on offense facing an Arizona
defense that has a suspect defensive front. Atlanta was 6-2 SU and ATS in home
games last season.
The Cardinals fumbled seven times losing four of them and committed
10 penalties. Quarterback Derek Anderson was just 22 of 41 passing and the
offense turned the ball over twice deep in Rams territory.
The two best defensive plays in the entire game were made by a
Cardinals offensive player. RB Tim Hightower fumbled the ball and it was picked
up by Rams cornerback Bradley Fletcher. He was chased down by wide receiver
Steve Breaston. He tackled him at the Cardinals 32-yard line and after three
anemic Ram plays the Cardinals special teams blocked the field goal.
The better effort and the one you saw shown multiple times on all
of the major networks was when Anderson was hit and fumbled and defensive
tackle Clifton Ryan scooped up the ball at the Cardinal 23-yard line. Breaston
came flying up behind and forced the ball loose at about the four yard line.
Cardinal center Lyle Sendlein recovered the ball in the end zone for a
touchback. The score at the time of that play was the Rams 13 Cardinals 10.
Breaston easily accounted for saving 10 Ram points. Still, the Rams are that
bad a team, that the Cardinals escaped with a victory.
Atlanta is a far superior team than the Rams and the Cardinals
would need to play nearly perfect to stay within seven points of the Falcons.
The Cardinals are extremely thin at WR and this will allow the Falcons to apply
pressure on nearly every passing down. The Falcons White rushed for 111 yards
on just 13 carries and we see strong reasons that they will have a huge day on
the ground. Atlanta has a very high probability of rushing for 125 or more yards
in this game.
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In past games Arizona is 9-43 ATS (-38.3 Units) when they allow 125
to 150 rushing yards since 1992. In a near reverse situation Arizona will have
a difficult time establishing the run. I do not see them getting even close to
100 rushing yards. In past games Atlanta is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they
allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons. Even the game last week
works in favor of the Falcons noting they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units)
after scoring 14 points or less in their last game over the last 3 seasons.
With Arizona expected to have difficulty establishing drives and
scoring points the 'under' may the play. Atlanta will be able to get out to 14
to 20 point lead and once accomplished they then can take a no risk approach on
offense. Defensively, they can sit in their cover-2 and cover-3 schemes and
defend the pass. In this situation it will be even more difficult for the
Cardinals to score points. Here is a supporting system that has gone 42-14 ATS
for 75% winners playing the football betting 'under' since 1983. Play under with any team against the total
and after 1 or more consecutive losses and won between 51% to 60% of their
games last season and playing a team that had a winning record.