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9/16/2010 12:00:00 AM
Kansas City Chiefs surprised most last week with a win over the
Chargers, can they repeat or will the Browns step up?
NFL Betting Line
- Cleveland -1,-125 / 38 1/2
provided by the Greek
This line is working its way to 2 and possibly 2 1/2 as there is
growing expectations that the Browns will play better than they did last week
against Tampa Bay and that KC will have a letdown after their big win against
That may be all true, but betting against the public is something
I have studied and quantified over my 17-year handicapping career and is not
the best way of making money. BoDog has not posted a line attributed to the
uncertain status of Browns starting quarterback Jake Delhomme.
Be sure to check out all of the betting lines at the SBR Odds.
KC defensive coordinator Crennel returns to Cleveland for the
first time since being fired in 2008. The media always makes more out of this
then is warranted. Crennel and his staff are the type of coaches that will
focus everyone on a 'one play, one quarter, one half, one game at a time'
This will minimize any letdowns from last week's huge win. The KC
secondary was vastly better than advertised and their defensive scheme will
force the Browns to throw the ball. The Browns are certainly not as strong an
offensive unit as the Chargers so KC will be able to bring different looks and
use the safety to stop the running game.
Cleveland will try to execute a more balanced offensive attack this
week. Yet, they will need to throw the ball deep or spread the field with three
and four wide receiver sets. Their biggest problem with that strategy is that
they cannot afford to get into second or third and long situations.
Running back Jerome Harrison averaged six yards per carry with
most of that coming in the first half last week. The KC defensive front did a
great job of preventing the Charger offensive linemen from getting to the
second levels. The key matchup here is KC inside linebacker Derrick Johnson
spying on Harrison.
Kansas City remembers all to well that Harrison torched them for 286
rushing yards, ranking third most in NFL history, last year and that is simply
not going to happen again. Johnson is one of the most athletic and quickest
linebackers in the NFL and those assets match up extremely well against a
running back like Harrison, who likes to shoot through seams. The winner of
this NFL matchup will determine in large part who wins this game.
Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme has a sprained ankle and was
seen at practice Wednesday wearing a boot. Seneca Wallace will be starting if
Delhomme cannot due to the injury. They are different style quarterbacks, but
neither will present a game plan problem for KC. Crennel will want either QB to
be contained in the pocket and allow his secondary to make plays.
Delhomme will not be a threat to run and KC can use their
defensive ends for containment if Wallace tries to make a play with his legs.
Delhomme loves play action pass, but that is not going to be effective either
against KC this week. KC lacks a bona fide pass rusher and their entire goal
will be to make either QB make plays in the vertical passing game.
If you like Cleveland then check out this supporting system that
has produced a record of 44-16 ATS for 73.3% winners since 1983. Play against home
teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss and a team that had a losing
record last season. The 'under' may be a valid pro football betting opportunity as well and
is supported by a system that has produced a 34-13 record for 72.3% winners
since 2000. Play 'under' with any team against the total in conference games in
the first two weeks of the year and was a non-playoff team from last season,
who won their last two games of the season. Letdown is in the cards for KC as
they are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games after leading in their
previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.