It’s a must win Monday night game for both the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. After offering insights into the spread and total, here are some final thoughts on their showdown in the AFC East.

After winning their first two games of the year, Rex Ryan’s New York Jets have lost three in a row to drop to 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS. Now they host a desperate (and winless) Miami Dolphins team (0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS) that could be one more loss away from making wholesale changes beginning with the head coach. Kickoff for this matchup from MetLife Stadium will be 8:30 PM ET.

Reggie Bush Miami DolphinsNew York opened as a -9 point favorite with the total at 42.5 points but both numbers have been bet down and the Jets are a seven point pick now at most locations. The Jets are 0-3 ATS in their last three games but each contest topped the total putting NY at 4-1 to the ‘over’ this season. The latest setback came at the hands of the arch-rival Patriots last week, with the Jets losing 30-21 as the supposedly vaunted defense surrendered a season-high 446 yards.

Surprisingly, Ryan has had more success against New England in the conference than he has against Miami. Ryan is just 1-3 against the Fins since taking the Jets job and has never beaten them at home. In fact Miami is 3-0 in its last three visits to the Big Apple, all as an underdog.

As of right now, the Dolphins won’t make a change at head coach with Tony Sprano still employed. However a loss on national TV could change management’s way of thinking.  And there’s the fact that owner Stephen Ross recently gave Sprano the dreaded vote of confidence or kiss of death. 

The natives are restless

Receiver Santonio Holmes was stirring things up last week, questioning everything and everybody from the offensive line, to offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to quarterback Mark Sanchez who is taking heat for the team’s anemic passing attack that’s netting just 221.2 yards per game and ranks 21st in the league. Sanchez has a passer rating of 80.4 and looks to have regressed since his rookie season.

Maybe that’s why the Jets have declared the days of ‘ground and pound’ are back. They relied heavily on the running game last week but Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson were held to 95 yards on 27 carries. New York though couldn’t contain Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis who rambled for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns and didn’t have any luck slowing down Tom Brady who had 321 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

The Dolphins are one of three winless teams in the league and they’ll have a new QB tonight as former Carolina QB Matt Moore will start in place of Chad Henne who is out for the year after having surgery on his separated left shoulder. The well-traveled Sage Rosenfels will be his backup.

The Dolphins are ranked No. 28 in total defense and will be facing a Jets offense which is also ranked 28th.  Miami's had a propensity to allow the big passing plays which could explain their 31st rating in pass defense. That may not be a problem against Sanchez who in three years at the helm still hasn’t shown the ability to get the ball down the field with any regularity.

The Monday night forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50’s with a chance of rain.

Final thoughts: Both teams are a mess right now and neither team instills much confidence among bettors I’ve spoken to. It seems that the way to go is on the ‘under’. I mean Matt Moore and Mark Sanchez as opposing QB’s. It’s UCLA and USC all over again. Regardless of how this one turns out jobs are going to be lost.

Final, final though: Ignore the ‘over’ trends. The Jets' offensive in the last meeting with the Dolphins last year won’t inspire much confidence. They lost 10-6 at home, as the offense was limited to 280 yards while Sanchez contributed 216 on 17 of 44 passing with an interception.

Miami's offense, meanwhile, hasn't produced more than 16 points in its last three games. This baby is going ‘under’ with room to spare.

To weigh in on the Jets and Dolphins Week 6 game check out my MNF football thread at the SBR NFL sub forum.