It’s a must win Monday night game for both
the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. After offering insights into the spread and total, here
are some final thoughts on their showdown in the AFC East.
After winning their first two games of the
year, Rex Ryan’s New York Jets have lost three in a row to drop to 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS.
Now they host a desperate (and winless) Miami Dolphins team (0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS) that
could be one more loss away from making wholesale changes beginning with the
head coach. Kickoff for this matchup from MetLife Stadium will be 8:30 PM ET.
New York opened as a -9 point favorite with
the total at 42.5 points but both numbers have been bet down and the Jets are a
seven point pick now at most locations. The Jets are 0-3 ATS in their last
three games but each contest topped the total putting NY at 4-1 to the ‘over’
this season. The latest setback came at the hands of the arch-rival Patriots
last week, with the Jets losing 30-21 as the supposedly vaunted defense
surrendered a season-high 446 yards.
Surprisingly, Ryan has had more success
against New England in the conference than he has against Miami. Ryan
is just 1-3 against the Fins since taking the Jets job and has never beaten
them at home. In fact Miami is 3-0 in its last three visits to the Big Apple,
all as an underdog.
As of right now, the Dolphins won’t
make a change at head coach with Tony Sprano still employed. However a loss on
national TV could change management’s way of thinking. And there’s the fact
that owner Stephen Ross recently gave Sprano the dreaded vote of
confidence or kiss of death.
natives are restless
Receiver Santonio Holmes was stirring things
up last week, questioning everything and everybody from the offensive line, to
offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to quarterback Mark Sanchez who is taking
heat for the team’s anemic passing attack that’s netting just 221.2 yards per
game and ranks 21st in the league. Sanchez has a passer rating of
80.4 and looks to have regressed since his rookie season.
Maybe that’s why the Jets have declared the
days of ‘ground and pound’ are back. They relied heavily on the running game
last week but Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson were held to 95 yards on 27
carries. New York though couldn’t contain Patriots running back BenJarvus
Green-Ellis who rambled for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns and
didn’t have any luck slowing down Tom Brady who had 321 yards, one touchdown
and one interception.
The Dolphins are one of three winless teams
in the league and they’ll have a new QB tonight as former Carolina QB Matt
Moore will start in place of Chad Henne who is out for the year after having
surgery on his separated left shoulder. The well-traveled Sage Rosenfels will
be his backup.
The Dolphins are ranked No. 28 in total
defense and will be facing a Jets offense which is also ranked 28th. Miami's had a propensity to allow the big
passing plays which could explain their 31st rating in pass defense.
That may not be a problem against Sanchez who in three years at the helm still
hasn’t shown the ability to get the ball down the field with any regularity.
The Monday night forecast is calling for
temperatures in the 50’s with a chance of rain.
Final thoughts: Both teams are a mess right now and neither team instills much
confidence among bettors I’ve spoken to. It seems that the way to go is on the
‘under’. I mean Matt Moore and Mark Sanchez as opposing QB’s. It’s UCLA and USC
all over again. Regardless of how this one turns out jobs are going to be lost.
final though: Ignore the ‘over’ trends. The Jets' offensive in the last meeting
with the Dolphins last year won’t inspire much confidence. They lost 10-6 at
home, as the offense was limited to 280 yards while Sanchez contributed 216 on
17 of 44 passing with an interception.
offense, meanwhile, hasn't produced more than 16 points in its last three
games. This baby is going ‘under’ with room to spare.
To weigh in on the Jets and Dolphins Week 6 game
check out my MNF football thread at the SBR NFL sub forum.