10/25/2009 1:00:00 PM
Parity in the NFL may be slowly becoming a myth, as double-digit favorites are 11-4 against the spread this season. Don't expect the Rams to have any answer for the undefeated Colts.
Last week, right here in this spot, we finally had a big favorite that absolutely did not work out. However, for most of the season it has been they kind of year that has people asking “whatever happened to parity in the NFL?” Such will be the case when the Indianapolis Colts visit the St. Louis Rams.
So far this season, it continues to be a picture of the “rich getting richer” while the downtrodden teams continue to get hammered on a weekly basis. Overall, there have been a ton of blowouts this season in the NFL and the best versus worst disparity seems to be growing by a larger margin than ever.
To support our general analysis about this, take note that the numbers do not lie. Double digit favorites in the NFL this season are already 11-4 this season. This general trend is unlikely to change this week in St Louis as the struggling Rams are primed to get pummeled by the rested Colts.
While Indianapolis is in great shape and coming off of their bye week, note that the Rams suffered a very demoralizing overtime loss at Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars are not a very good football team as their defense has been exposed on many occasions already this season. That said, it’s tough to imagine the Rams offense doing any better this week than they did last week as now St Louis must contend with a Colts defense that has been rock solid against the pass this season.
Also, the Rams defense has been struggling mightily this season and they now must contend with the #1 passing attack in the league and a rested Peyton Manning at quarterback!
St Louis is one of three winless teams and they were absolutely pummeled by the Vikings two weeks ago 38-10. We know this is a big spread for the Colts to cover here but the Rams, whether through offensive turnovers or extreme defense lapses, just continue to find ways to lose, and most often, it’s by very big margins.
The big concern here for St Louis is that they may not have much “left in the tank” after the tough overtime loss to Jacksonville. The Rams really let the game get away from them in regulation and then the overtime period saw their defense getting worn out on the field as the Jaguars methodically moved down the field against them for the winning score.
It’s certainly not a good scenario for having the Rams prepared for a fresh Colts team, off a bye week, and ready to resume running like the “well-oiled machine” that they’ve been this season. Note that Indianapolis has covered four straight times after a bye week. The Colts are also on a 12-5 ATS run in road games.
Already this season the Rams are an ugly 2-4 ATS while the Colts are a solid 4-1 against the number. Another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in St Louis. Play on the Colts Sunday
Free Pick: Colts -13½ (-110)