The Dallas Cowboys have a 1-4 spread record in their last five games, while doing just enough to lead the NFC East Division. They now find themselves in a revenge spot with Saturday’s home matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who handed Dallas a 34-7 defeat in an Oct. 30 clash with their rival.
Sportsbooks opened the Cowboys as three-point favorites, with
early NFL betting ‘steam’ on Philadelphia driving the number south to 1 ½. NFL odds makers
first set the ‘total’ at 50 ½, remaining unchanged after initial wagers were
Cowboys end skid in Tampa
Dallas ended a two-game losing streak with last Saturday’s 31-15
victory as a seven-point road favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Cowboys lit up the board for a 28-0 halftime lead, with that span’s four
touchdowns all coming in the red zone.
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo connected on 23-of-30 passes,
finishing with 249 yards through the air. The three-time Pro Bowl
selection guided the offense to 28 first downs, controlling the ball for a
sizable 38 minutes.
Dallas’ defense held Tampa Bay to 190 total yards, allowing just
one trip inside the 20-yard line. Cornerback Orlando Scandrick recorded
one of his squad’s three sacks, while logging a team-high five tackles.
The contest’s combined 46 points ducked below the closing ‘total’
of 47, bringing the ‘under’ to 3-1 in Dallas’ last four games. Cowboys
running back Felix Jones notched a season-high 22 carries en route to 108
Eagles soar at home
Philadelphia logged its second straight win in Sunday’s 45-19
triumph as a three-point home favorite against the New York Jets. The
Eagles began the affair with a stretch of 28 unanswered points, including
defensive end Juqua Parker returning a fumble 47 yards for a touchdown.
Eagles quarterback Michael Vick threw for 274 yards, completing
15-of-22 passes. The 31-year-old took in one touchdown himself, while
backfield mate LeSean McCoy reached the end zone three times as part of his 18
carries for 102 yards.
The Eagles’ defense allowed 241 total yards, with 147 coming
through the air. Defensive end Jason Babin logged three sacks, while
mates Asante Samuel and Jamar Chaney grabbed one interception each.
The lopsided affair’s combined 64 points leaped above the ‘total’
of 44, lifting the ‘over’ to 3-1 in Philadelphia’s last four games. Eagles tight end Brent Celek caught five passes for a season-high 156 receiving
yards, including one sizable 73-yard strike.
Back Dallas as the home ‘chalk’
Saturday’s kickoff is schedule for 4:15 p.m. (ET). Jones is
listed as “questionable” for Dallas due to a hamstring injury, while Samuel
(hamstring) and DeSean Jackson (elbow) are “probable” for Philadelphia.
I am adding the Cowboys to my NFL Picks as they are out for revenge,
laying the short premium at home. Dallas is 3-0 ATS in its last three
meetings with the Eagles at the “Jerry Dome,” outscoring Andy Reid’s club in
that stretch by a combined margin of 85-44.
The Cowboys have held visiting foes to 16.6 PPG in their last five
home games. Dallas is 22-9-2 ATS in its last 33 home dates when opposing
squads with losing road records.
Romo’s present passer rating of 102.6 ranks the signal caller
fourth in the league behind Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (120.1), New Orleans’
Drew Brees (109.1) and New England’s Tom Brady (106.7). Look for the
Cowboys to rely on an air attack if Jones is unable to start in the backfield.
Philadelphia has been overvalued after high-scoring spots, with
Vick and Co. going 0-5 ATS in their last five games that followed notching at
least 30 points. The Eagles have logged a 2-6 spread mark in their last
eight road games on turf, including a 31-14 defeat as three-point road ‘chalk’
on Dec. 1 in Seattle.
My Picks: Go against the early ‘steam’ here and grab the value with Dallas,
who gets an extra day of rest while having this spot circled for nearly two