It's Thanksgiving in Canada, and the CFL slate gives fans and bettors a couple of big games to chew on Monday culminating with a huge Saskatchewan, Calgary contest out west.
Toronto (51) at Winnipeg (-6)
Friday, Oct 10, 7:30 p.m. (ET)
The Bombers are coming off an embarrassing lost at the Eskimos and at one point during the second quarter it was 31-2 for Edmonton. Winnipeg has been reminded during their practice all week about their poor performance and they’re back at home this week vs. the struggling Argonauts.
Toronto is banged up at the running back position and they have no confidence on offense with the way the revolving door has been turning since Don Matthews arrived a few weeks ago. The hard part about handicapping bad football teams is you never know which team will show up to play, as consistency is an issue and the reason they own a losing record. My rule of thumb in this case is to back the home team and consider the Under.
Argos at Blue Bombers History: 8-8-1 (ATS) 8-9 (SU) 7-10-0 (O/U/P)
Ron’s Forecast: Winnipeg-23 Toronto-15
ATSCalculator.com: Winnipeg by 11.61 and O/U to land on 51.65
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Toronto plays as a +3½ to +6½ road underdog after having allowed 24 points or more against in their last game, the Argos are 10-2-0 ATS in this role since 1996.
Edmonton (56½) at BC Lions (-5½)
Friday, Oct 10, 10:30 p.m. (ET)
Here’s the problem in an 8-team league: There are only four games per week and the chances of an underdog winning straight up are quite low. However, this game will resemble a playoff type game, as we are entering the final stretch of the season and the West Division teams are jockeying for playoff position.
The Lions are on a nice five-game winning streak, but their Strength of Schedule is 38.7% in their last seven games and the Eskimos have the better QB in this game. A game of this importance will come down to the playmakers and Ricky Ray in my view is the most outstanding player in the West.
Normally when a game of this magnitude comes along late in the season that has playoff implications for home field advantage, it’s a low-scoring affair, so you might want to take a look at the Under.
Eskimos at Lions History: 11-8-2 (ATS) 9-12 (SU) 9-11-0 (O/U/P)
Ron’s Forecast: Edmonton-29 BC Lions-24
ATSCalculator.com: BC by 4.46 and the O/U to land on 55.39
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When British Columbia plays as a -3½ to -6½ favorite and coming off one ATS loss, the Under is 12-3-0 for the Lions in this situation since 2000.
Hamilton (57) at Montreal (-12½)
Monday, Oct 13, 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Classic letdown spot here for the Hamilton Tiger Cats, as they are coming off their own little Grey Cup win last week vs. Montreal and they’ve found their next starting QB of the future in Quinton Porter who threw for 5 TD passes in their 44-38 win over the Alouettes.
The last time a Tiger Cats QB threw for 5 TD passes his name was Danny McManus, so there’s a good chance Porter could be around Steel town for a few more years. This is bad news for starting QB Casey Printers and even worse for back up QB Reggie Williams.
Nevertheless, it’s back to the grind for the Alouettes who will be at home on Thanksgiving Monday vs. the Ticats and they will be seeking revenge for their fifth loss of the season last week. Like the ATS Calculator says; Montreal by 17 points.
Tiger Cats at Alouettes History: 14-8-1 (ATS) 6-17 (SU) 10-13-0 (O/U/P)
Ron’s Forecast: Montreal-31 Hamilton-14
ATSCalculator.com: Montreal by 17.98 and the O/U to land on 59.01
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Hamilton plays on the road as an underdog during Weeks 12-16 (during October), the Under is 8-2-0 for the Tiger Cats in this role since ’97.
Saskatchewan (55) at Calgary (-6½)
Monday, Oct 13, 4:30 p.m. (ET)
In my view, this is the Game of the Week and I can see this game going down to the wire!
The Stamps are a horrible road favorite as we indicated in our report last week, but they are 14-5-1 SU the last two-&-a-half years at McMahon Stadium. Furthermore, when Calgary plays on the road or at home during the last three years after losing their last game by three points or less, the Stampeders are 7-1-0 ATS in this spot.
The Roughriders were great road underdogs in the first half of the season, but their QB situation is too much of a risk factor when you have your hard-earned money on the game. Still believe this game will be played out in the final three minutes, but the Over would be the best option in this Thanksgiving classic out west.
Roughriders at Stampeders History: 11-10-0 (ATS) 7-14 (SU) 9-12-0 (O/U/P)
Ron’s Forecast: Calgary-31 Saskatchewan-29
ATSCalculator.com: Calgary by 8.74 and the O/U to land on 54.37
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When any CFL team plays at home after a division game and after 8-11 days off, with a total of 54½ or more and coming off a game they scored 34 points or less, the home team is 10-2-0 ATS in this spot since ’96.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend my fellow Canadian friends and have a safe holiday weekend.