The Denver Broncos offense is on a
record-shattering pace. Looks like a great spot for some NFL prop bets with the
San Diego Chargers coming to town on Thursday night.
record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to December 11 inclusive:
ML (+0.71 units)
Be sure to check out our:
NFL Picks: Week 15 NFL Value Picks
NFL Picks: Week 15 Fades & Games to Avoid
Sweet Murphy Brown, those Denver Broncos
can move the football. They’re the only NFL team this year to score over 500
points – nobody else has even reached 400 yet. They’re also the only team to
eclipse 4,000 passing yards and 6,000 total yards. Barring some kind of
catastrophic failure, Peyton Manning will win his fifth league MVP award, and
break the NFL single-season records for touchdown strikes (Tom Brady, 50) and
passing yards (Drew Brees, 5,476).
With Denver’s offense bent on destroying
those records, and with the defensively challenged San Diego Chargers coming to
Mile High on Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN), this is a gift-wrapped opportunity
to bust out some NFL props. The weather report calls for clear skies and
temperatures just above freezing, which shouldn’t stop the Broncos from doing
their thing. Let’s see what’s out there on the NFL odds boards.
Completions by Peyton Manning: OVER 28.5
Our highly scientific NFL betting process
begins by looking at how many completions Peyton Manning has made in each of his 13
games thus far:
27, 30, 32, 28, 33, 28, 29, 30, 25, 24, 19,
Let’s see… carry the one… looks like six of
those numbers are above 28.5 and seven below, including four of the last five.
Manning completed 25 passes in Week 11 versus the Chargers in San Diego, in one
of just two games this year where the Broncos failed to score 30 points. That’s
a statistical anomaly if I’ve ever seen one. Or is it? Here’s how many
completions San Diego has allowed in each game:
34, 23, 23, 27, 18, 18, 23, 23, 25, 22, 26,
There’s a lot more variance on this list,
since San Diego played against 13 different starting quarterbacks with
different styles – including a bunch of dual-threat types like Mike Vick,
Robert Griffin III and Terrelle Pryor. But these are still lower numbers than
you’d expect from one of the worst defenses in the past 25 years, according to
the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders.
Efficiency is the key word here, as opposed to volume. The Chargers run
defense ranks dead-last in the league, as does their pass defense, so why not
simply hand the ball off? The Broncos rushing offense will get its licks in, of
course, but this is still all about Peyton Manning, especially with those
records in sight. You’re with me, leather.
Touchdown Passes by Peyton Manning: OVER 3.5 (+140)
Time for some more numbers, starting with
Peyton’s TD passes for each game, and finishing with San Diego’s TD passes
Manning: 7, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 4
3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 4, 1, 3, 1, 1
Speaking of anomalies, see that lone “4” on
the Chargers line? That was Manning. He’s thrown at least four TD passes in
seven of his starts and four of his last six. I’m more than happy to recommend
the OVER here.
Receiving Yards by Eric Decker: OVER 90.5
One more number line for Decker:
32, 87, 133, 88, 87, 50, 150, 42, 52, 71,
5, 174, 117
The variance gods strike
again. Decker has been targeted 12 times in each of Denver’s last two games;
against San Diego in Week 11, it was only five targets and three catches for 52
yards. Expect that to go up even more on Thursday now that WR Wes Welker
(concussion) has been ruled out. Decker is a strong candidate to hoover up a
lot of those slot passes that normally would have gone to Welker. Get those
Yards After Catch, big man. Run like the wind.