VCU has squashed any doubts as to whether or not they belong in the NCAA Tournament by winning all three games so far by double digits with the last two coming vs. ranked teams.
Well, we are guaranteed seeing at least one double-digit seed in the Elite Eight, as one of the NCAA Basketball matchups in the Sweet 16 Friday night pits the 11th seeded Virginia Commonwealth Rams (26-11) vs. the Florida State Seminoles (23-10) at The Alamodome in San Antonio, TX at 9:55 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.
Now the ACC may have sent three teams to the Sweet 16, but Duke and North Carolina are now a combined 1-4 against the NCAA Basketball odds in this tournament following Duke’s surprisingly easy elimination at the hands of Arizona last night, and that does not bode well for the ACC’s third place team from Florida State vs. a VCU team that has quieted it skeptics by winning three NCAA Tournament games by 18. 18 and 13 points respectively.
Furthermore, after beating USC in a play-in game, the Rams have routed a couple of ranked teams in Georgetown and Purdue, proving that they definitely belong in this tournament, and we are looking for VCU to pull off another upset tonight as it continues to play with the proverbial chip on its shoulder. We also say to forget about the points in this one, as we are looking for a straight up upset and the Money Line is too juicy to resist..
The NCAA Basketball latest line from 5 Dimes for this contest is VCU +170 on the Money Line on a neutral floor.
Now we get that Florida State leads the nation in defensive efficiency, but the Rams are on fire right now, as they shot a blistering 56.9 percent from the field overall vs. Purdue and they ar shooting a blazing 41.0 percent from beyond the three point arc in the first three games of this tournament. Furthermore, that is not a fluke as VCU ranks 74th in the country in three-point shooting in NCAA Basketball betting at 36.4 percent for the entire year.
VCU has that enviable combination of a high effective field goal percentage and a low turnover rate that its offense tough to stop. The Rams rank 75th in effective field goal percentage at a nice 51.1 percent and 20th in turnover percentage at a low 16.9 percent of possessions, so they should not be flustered by the Niles’ defense and they can shoot right over the Florida State pressure from the perimeter.
That should make for a long night for the Seminoles, because when the Noles are not stopping people, they do not really have the firepower to outscore them.
Florida State ranks a low 130th in the country in offensive efficiency and just 164th in effective field goal percentage, and unlike VCU, the Seminoles are very turnover prone, ranking a dismal 312th out of 345 Division I teams in turnover percentage at a hefty 23.0 percent of possessions. To put that number in perspective, consider that the national average in turnover percentage is 20.1 percent.
Now VCU is not as well known for its defense as Florida State is, but the Rams’ unit actually ranks 50th in the country at forcing turnovers at 22.4 percent of possessions, so that makes this a nightmarish matchup for a Seminoles’ offense that figures to throw the ball away left and right.
Finally, should this game be in doubt late, Florida State is a poor foul shooting team at just 66.5 percent while VCU is quite solid from the charity stripe at 71.8 percent. Add this all up and the end result should be an outright VCU upset on the NCAA Basketball betting odds on Friday.
Free NCAA Basketball Pick: VCU +170 (money line)