The home-road disparities these two school sport is enough reason to lay the points on UNLV at home. Ride the Rebels to the pay window versus the New Mexico Lobos.
At first glace, taking the points looks like the way to go here but the Rebels should cruise here. They are coming off an upset win at Louisville in their last game and that will cause some people to be afraid of a letdown but I for one am not.
This is the Mountain West Conference opener for UNLV (for both teams actually) so while they went a solid 12-2 ATS during the non-conference portion of the schedule, it is now a new season and the goal of winning the conference starts Saturday. UNLV is picked to win the conference and coming off a 12-4 MWC record last season; they should be in good shape to do just that.
The Rebels have won seven straight games since dropping back-to-back games at home against California and Cincinnati and they bring in some good momentum especially with that win over the Cardinals. New Mexico picked up their second road win of the season with a victory over rival New Mexico St., but this team is completely different away from home where they are 7-1 on the year.
Speaking of home, the Rebels shine at the Thomas and Mack Center. UNLV had a 19-game home win streak snapped in that loss to California and prior to that setback, it was tied for the seventh-longest active streak in the country. UNLV is 45-5 at home since the start of the 2006-07 season and has won 24 straight games against MWC opponents at the on its home floor. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won six of the last eight meetings and that does not include two UNLV wins in the MWC Tournament that is played on its home floor as well.
The Rebels also fall into a solid play against situation. Play against road underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 74 and 78 ppg going up against a team allowing between 63 and 67 ppg. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +9.2 ppg. The Rebels are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won between 60 and 80 percent of their games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams shooting above 45 percent while allowing below 42 percent shooting.
Free Pick: UNLV -6½ (+108)