It has not been plain sailing for the Connecticut Huskies, having lost three on the bounce they enter the Verizon Center in a tough spot. The Georgetown Hoyas are no push over but UConn simply have to win; so who to back at your sportsbook?
My record on the College Basketball thread now stands at 52-57 ATS for 5* plays, 7-1 ATS for 10* plays, and 2-0 ATS for 20* plays. Had a serious nail-biter with Wake Forest last night, but they came through as a 20* Titan winner. 

5* graded play on Georgetown as they host UCONN in a Big East matchup set to tip at 7:00 PM ET.  

The NCAA basketball odds makers opened this one with Georgetown favored by 3.5 but that number is now just 2.5 with the total at 129.5.

UCONN enters this game almost in a ‘must-win’ situation having lost their last three. They sport a 14-6 season record and are just 4-4 in Big East conference games, placing them in ninth position of the 16-team Big East conference. They trail Syracuse by four full games. 

Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown is coming off one of their poorest shooting games of the season at Pittsburgh losing 72-60 and as one point dogs. That loss ended a three game winning streak and they have posted a 16-4 record and are 6-3 in Big east action. They trail Syracuse by 2.5 games and play the Orange February 8. 

These are two of the best shooting teams in the Big east, but both teams have struggled to find the net in their past two games. I think UCONN has some fundamental flaws offensively that will prevent them from attaining their 47% season shooting average tonight and in games to come. Georgetown simply had a bad shooting day at Pittsburgh and were moving the ball well and getting the high percentage ‘looks’ that they normally will drain better than 50% of the time. 

Georgetown is led by Clark and Thompson, who are averaging 15.6 and 13.9 points per game respectively and despite the past two sub-par games are still shooting 49.5% and 50.7% from the field for the season. I do not see UCONN having the defensive presence to contain these two elite players and I believe Georgetown will get off to a very fast start and never look back. 

Simulator projections

My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a high probability that Georgetown will win this game by four or more points. The simulator shows a high probability, exceeding 85%, that Georgetown will shoot between 41 and 46% form the field, will score between 67 and 74 points and contain UCONN to less than 61 points. 

In past games, UCONN is just 1-8 ATS in road games when the score less than 61 points spanning the past three seasons; 42-64 ATS in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997. Georgetown is a solid 68-42 ATS when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. 

For those that want to lay the money line you will enjoy knowing that Georgetown is near perfect 9-1 against the money line making 9.8 units per one unit wagered when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last two seasons.

Supporting systems

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 203-138 ATS for 60% ATS winners since 2006. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a loss by six points or less and with four starters returning from last season. This system provides numerous plays for those seeking systems providing that added feature. What is impressive is that despite the added action, 104 of 203 winners or 51% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my strong belief that Georgetown will win this game by double digits. 

Here is a money line system that has produced a 78-40 record making 33.9 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that are off a home loss by three points or less and playing only their second game in eight days. 

Take the Georgetown Hoyas confidently!