Tonight when St. Mary's faces off against the Santa Clara Broncos, look for the Broncos to use their superior defense to shut down the Gaels, and take the win tonight.
Yesterday's NCAA Basketball free pick extended my overall record to 34-24-5 ATS as Harvard took the win over Princeton. Lets see if our luck continues as I provide another NCAA Basketball pick.
Today's Five Star graded play on Santa
Clara Broncos as they take on St. Mary’s Gaels in the semifinals of the West Coast conference
set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and
simulator shows a high probability that Santa Clara will lose this game by
fewer than seven points and has a solid opportunity to win the game. The other
semifinal game features Gonzaga against San Francisco starting at 10:30 PM ET.
Both games are being played in Las Vegas.
Santa Clara is Capable of
Winning This Game
The Santa Clara Broncos are playing their best basketball right
now and have won their last three games. St. Mary’s had lost three straight
games before defeating an inferior Portland team 83-69 and covering the 11 1/2
point spread. The Gaels defense has not been playing well and as a result five
straight games have played ‘over’ the posted total.
The St. Mary’s Gaels defense ranks second in conference and 138th
nationally allowing 67.1 points per game, but have allowed a conference worst
77.7 points per game over the past three games. They are also allowing 70.8
points per game in road tilts.
The Santa Clara Broncos rank sixth in conference and 262nd
nationally in scoring defense allowing 71.6 points per game, but it is their
improved offensive play and stronger rebounding that will make this a very
close game tonight.
The Santa Clara offense is peaking at the right time. They rank
third in conference and 65th nationally in scoring offense at 72.5 points per
game and have averaged a remarkable 80.3 points per game over the past three
games. St. Mary’s has been largely consistent on offense over the course of the
season and rank best in conference and 12th nationally in scoring offense
averaging 79.1 points per game. With the significant rise in the Broncos
offense I see the two units equal for this game.
Rebounding will be the
reason the Bronco Win
Santa Clara has done a great job rebounding the basketball
recently and I strongly believe that they will dominate both ends of the glass
in this game. Strong defensive rebounding is critical against a high powered
offenses because it limits second chance scoring opportunities.
ranks fifth in conference and 159th nationally in total rebounding averaging
35.0 boards per game and have averaged an outstanding 39.7 boards per game over
the past three games. St. Mary’s ranks sixth in conference and 181st nationally
in total rebounding averaging 34.5 boards per game, but have been horrid
getting just 29.7 boards per game over the past three games.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 107-61 ATS for 64% winners since 2005. Play on a dog revenging two straight losses
where team scored less than 60 points and playing their second game in three
Of the 168 plays made based on the criteria of this system 30% or 51
plays of them have covered the spread by seven or more points.
My Pick: Take the Santa Clara Broncos.