The Saint Mary's Gaels are 16.5 point favorites tonight against the San Diego Toreros. While San Diego is 6-17 ATS, they managed to cover against Saint Mary's earlier this season.
Toreros To Use Pace To Slow Down St.
The San Diego
Toreros know that they aren't winning this game and that they are absolutely
overmatched. After all, they're a 5-21 team, and the NCAA Basketball odds makers haven't even
been able to give them enough points on the college basketball odds to do more
than post a lousy 6-17 ATS mark on the campaign. We're talking about a team
that is just 1-10 in conference play, and is one of the few teams in the
country that doesn't know what it's like to win a game on the road.
However, what San
Diego did to beat the NCAA Basketball lines against the St. Mary's Gaels the first time
around and was to take the pace out of the game. The two teams just barely combined
for 100 shots on the day, and the Toreros found a way to take advantage of a
decent night on the glass to keep control of the rock. Truth be told, if the
team didn't shoot just 13-of-23 from the charity stripe, it might have won the
game outright as a 28 point pup.
But then again,
maybe that shouldn't be much of a surprise. San Diego is only averaging 60.7
PPG as it is, and as a team, it is only shooting 68.0 percent from the line.
Darian Norris is
the team's only double digit point scorer at 10.3 PPG. No one on the team that
is averaging more than 15 minutes per game is shooting better than 42.2 percent
from the field either.
Gaels Need to Not Look Ahead to
It's not just that
BracketBusters showdown with the Utah State Aggies that has us concerned,
though. The game immediately after this weekend's huge tussle is against the
Gonzaga Bulldogs, the team that has really stood in the way of the St. Mary's
Gaels for years in the WCC.
While San Diego
needs to slow this game down to cover the college basketball betting lines, St.
Mary's is going to hope to speed everything up. This is a squad that flies all
over the place and gets contributions from everyone in terms of scoring. The
equation all adds up to 80.8 PPG, good enough to rank No. 11 in the country.
Where the Toreros
only have Norris as a big time scorer, Mickey McConnell, Rob Jones, and Matthew
Dellavedova are all good for over a dozen points on the average night, while
Mitchell Young is just barely off of the pace for double digits of scoring per
NCAA Basketball Odds Stacked Too High
for St. Mary's
Asking a team to come
on the road in a conference game and lay 17 points is a tall order, and it's an
order that we're not so sure St. Mary's is up to. You have to go back into the
mid-2000s to find the last time there was a game separated by this many points
in this series. After all, San Diego is only being outscored by 6.0 PPG over
the course of the last nine meetings, even though the Gaels have been favored
by an average of 10.8 PPG in that stretch. Needless to say, SD is 6-3 ATS in
this run and even has two outright upsets.