Pittsburgh and Louisville will play out a Big East game today at 2:00pm ET and John Ryan has fired up the simulator and crunched the angles to give us 10* play for this game as part of our NCAA basketball picks
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10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take to the road to play Louisville in a BIG EAST conference matchup set to start at 2:00 PM ET.
The NCAA basketball odds makers opened the spread on this game with Louisville favored by 8.5 and it is holding with the total also solid at 129.5.
There are five ranked teams in the Big East Conference. Four of them appear in consecutive numeric order with No. 2 Syracuse (29-1, 16-1), No. 10 Marquette (24-5, 13-3) , No,. 18 Notre Dame (20-9, 12-4), and No. 8 Georgetown (21-6, 11-5). However, the fifth ranked team is No. 17 Louisville, who sports a 21-7 season record and is just 9-6 in Big East conference action.
Louisville was victimized by some very strong three-point shooting in their 60-56 loss at Cincinnati. Moreover, head coach Rick Pitino voiced strong complaints about the officiating of that game and nearly came unglued when his center, Gorge Dieng, was whistled for his fourth foul with 10:54 left in the game. Senior Kyle Kuric missed all 11 of his shots, marking the first time that has occurred in his Louisville career. There are greater problems to be resolved by the Cardinals, than getting officials to listen to Pitino.
Losses like the one to the Bearcats can bring a team down and forces them to question their identifies and if they are truly as good as the media and the polls state. Piton is a great coach, but it never helps to blame poor team execution on a few questionable whistles.
The proprietary sports betting database and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than seven points. There are several factors, game situations, and projections supporting my belief that Pittsburgh can win this game.
This will be a slow-down methodical and physical style of basketball game. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will do a solid job rebounding the ball and will have between 40 and 44 boards in this game. In past games, where Pittsburgh has achieved this level of rebounding performance they are 47-17 against the money line making 29.0 units per on unit wagered when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997.
Key matchup to watch
Louisville has lived and died by pounding the paint on offense this season. They are a horrid perimeter shooting team and rank 170th in the nation hitting 43.3% of their shot attempts, and 260th hitting just 32.2% of their three point shots. Without having the perimeter threat, Pittsburgh can back the zone defense into the paint and focus on double teaming any ball handler in the post and force Louisville to hit perimeter shots.
Free throws will be a significant factor in this game and Pittsburgh is a significantly better free throw shooting team. Louisville ranks 202nd in ute nation connecting on just 68.3% of their charity stripe attempts while Pittsburgh ranks 126th in the nation connecting on 70.3% of their uncontested free throws.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 76-37 ATS for 67% winners since 2006. Play on road teams as a dog or pick after four or more consecutive losses and playing with five or six days rest. Of the 113 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 39 of them or 35%, cover the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my belief that Pittsburgh has the potential to win this game.
Take Pittsburgh as a 10* Titan Play as part of you NCAA basketball picks for today.