Stanford are favored by four points tonight
by the NCAA basketball odds makers as they look to begin their PAC-10
Overall record 35-26-5 ATS for 57.4% ATS winners.
NCAA basketball free pick
on Oregon State as they take on Stanford in the opening round of the Pac-10
conference tournament set to start at 9:30 PM ET.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a
high probability that Oregon State will lose this game by fewer than four
points and they have an excellent shot at upsetting the Cardinal.
Bonus first half play on
I also like a five star play on the first half line of this game, taking
Oregon State and getting 2 1/2 points. I fully expect them to leading at the
half. Further strengthening this play is the fact that Oregon State is 12-4 against the
first half line after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in two
straight games over the last two seasons. In their last two games Oregon State
scored 23 in a 70-59 loss at Arizona and scored 28 points in the first half of
their last game losing at Arizona State 80-66.
The Oregon State Beavers failed miserably down the stretch losing 10 of their
last 12 games and have posted a 4-8 ATS mark during this span. The Cardinal as
well struggled down the stretch losing five of the past seven games and have
covered just two of those games. The following research though shows why Oregon
State has a significant advantage in this game and why I feel strongly that
they will win the game.
Rankings and Stats
Oregon State has a significant advantage against Stanford Cardinal in
scoring points and will want to keep the pace fast. Oregon State ranks sixth in
the PAC-10 and 144th nationally in scoring offense averaging 69.3 points per
game. Stanford ranks ninth in the PAC-10 and 230th nationally in scoring
offense averaging 66.4 points per game and are averaging 62.9 points per game
in road games.
Oregon State will have a distinct advantage in the power game.
They rank fifth in the PAC-10 and 109th nationally in two point scoring
averaging 37.2 points per game. By comparison Stanford ranks ninth in the
conference and 216th nationally in two points scoring averaging 34.1 points per
Stanford likes shooting three point shots and relies more on the
perimeter game then the inside power game. With that said Oregon State does not
have defend both types of scoring threats and can elect to be more aggressive
defending the perimeter in this game. Missed perimeter shots generally lead to
deep rebounds which will promote fast break scoring opportunities for Oregon
Oregon State is reinforced by several key game situations and
matchups working against Stanford. Stanford is in a series of poor roles for
this game noting they are 1-9 ATS losing 8.9 units per one unit wagered in a neutral
court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997; 4-13 ATS losing 10.3 units per one
unit wagered revenging a road loss facing an opponent over the last two
seasons; 1-7 ATS losing 6.7 units per one unit wagered in road games after a
game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Oregon State is
buffered by the fact that they are a solid 12-4 ATS making 7.6 units per one
unit wagered after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in two straight
games over the last two seasons.
Basketball Free Pick: Take