Ohio State,Kansas,NCAA Basketball Pick,College Basketball Pick
3/31/2012 11:31:00 AM
Find out why John Ryan has decided to play on the total in tonight's Final Four matchup between Ohio State and Kansas. Who is he adding to his NCAA basketball picks, and why does he feel so confident that this pick will cash?
Free NCAA Basketball pick taking the ‘over’
in the Final Four game pitting Kansas against Ohio State set to tip at 8:45 PM
ET. This is going to be a break neck style of game where both teams will be
using missed shots as opportunities press the action to their mutual
advantages. I believe these NCAA basketball odds are extremely low and the simulator shows
conclusive evidence that the line is off by 10 or more points.
Now, to clarify, with the line estimated
to be off by 10 or more points by the simulator, you may be wondering why this
is not a stronger graded play. The dominant reason is the area of probability
under the bell curve of projections has a low statistical occurrence
confidence. That means in layman terms, that if this play wins, it will be
easily and may eclipse the total by 20 points.
However, there is a lower
probability that this could turn into a slugfest type of game with a total
around 120 points. I am not hedging my sports picks as I am confident the ‘OVER’ is
the right move for this game. This paragraph only explains why the graded play
is not a 10* or higher.
My NCAA basketball betting simulator shows a high
probability that more than 136 points will be scored in this game. The simulator
shows high probabilities that Ohio State will score between 67 and 74 points
and that Kansas will score a minimum of 72 points in this game. In past games,
Ohio State is perfect 6-0 ‘over’ in road games when they score between 67 and
74 points. Moreover, Ohio State is 8-1 ‘over’ in games where they have allowed
72 or more points.
Other projections that are
equally noteworthy and valid with Ohio State converting 72 to 78% of their free
throw attempts, Ohio State is hitting between 31 and 37% of their three point shot
attempts, and Kansas hitting between 40 and 46% from the field. In past games,
Ohio State is 23-10 ‘OVER’ when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots
in a game over the last three seasons;
26-13 ‘OVER’ in road games when they make 31% to 37% of their three
point attempts in a game since 1997; 7-1
‘OVER’ when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game this
season; 82-56 ‘OVER’ when their
opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997.
Team Matchups and Rankings
A dominant key in this game will
be the advantages I see Kansas having on the defensive end rebounding the
basketball. Second chance scoring opportunities are what often leads a team to
victory, especially in championship type games like the Final Four. Both teams
are strong rebounding teams and that is not surprising since this is the Final
Four. However, Kansas has the athletes and skills to do a better job with
defensive rebounding than Ohio State. Kansas will look to use missed Ohio State
shots to generate fast break scoring opportunities.
Game Situations Supporting The
Kansas has a very good defense,
but Ohio State has shown an ability to still score points against strong
defensive teams like Kansas. Ohio State is 8-1 ‘OVER’ in road games versus good defensive
teams allowing a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less this season; 11-3
‘OVER’ in road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points
per game this season; 11-3 ‘OVER’ in road games versus very good teams that are
outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the last two
I may be in the minority
believing that this game has the makings of a ‘helter-skelter’ type, but I do
believe the report shows why the matchups do favor a high scoring game.
Take the ‘over’ for a 5* Titan Play.