Michigan favored by three on the NCAA basketball odds board
tonight in their tip off with Northwestern. Look to the underdog in this
matchup and take the points.
This is my seventh week of the NCAA basketball picks reports and currently the overall record stands
at 24-14-4 ATS for 63.1% ATS winners. Last night Purdue got the cover against
Five star graded play on
the Northwestern Wildcats as they visit the Michigan Wolverines In Big Ten
action set to start at 6:30 PM ET.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows
a high probability that the Northwestern Wildcats will lose this game by three or fewer points
and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Michigan is playing their best
basketball of the season and have covered four straight, but Northwestern has
too much offensive firepower for Michigan to contain for an entire 40 minutes.
Play the First Half Line
I also like the playing Northwestern on the first half line for
a three star amount, fully expecting a very fast start by the Wildcats.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-2 ATS
against the first half line for 93% winners since 1997. This system has gone
10-1 ATS over the past five seasons and 6-0 ATS over the past three seasons.
This is the first qualifying play for this system this year.
Play on road teams where the first half line is +1.5 to -1.5 and
is a solid offensive team scoring between 74 to 78 points per game, after a win
by 6 points or less and now facing an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or
fewer points per game after 15 or more games.
The system has numerous parts to it and would require some work
to track, but producing these kinds of records over 14 years is reason enough
to take it upon yourself and monitor this money making system. Most important,
is that it under scores the dominance that I strongly believe will occur in
National Rankings and
The Wildcats rank second in the Big Ten and 43rd nationally in
scoring offense at 75 points per game. They are one of the few teams in the
nation that are scoring more in road games than at home. They are averaging
77.1 points per game in road games this season. This undoubtedly will make the
game more difficult for Michigan to manage.
Northwestern and Michigan are two of the worst rebounding teams
in the Big Ten. Northwestern ranks dead last in 11th place in the Big Ten and
313th nationally in total rebounding getting just 31 boards per game. Michigan
ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 290th nationally in total rebounding getting 32.0
boards per game.
Both teams prefer to pack in the defense into the paint area and
have a strong focus defending their glass first. They rank poorly in offensive
rebounding as well. This illustrates that the game will take on a half court
Big Ten style of game. This heavily favors Northwestern and their superior
ability to execute fundamental basketball plays in the half court sets and
Northwestern is a great ball handling and ball movement team
that will wear down and exploit the Michigan defense. Northwestern ranks best
in the Big Ten and ranks 5th nationally in assists at 17.8 assists per game.
comparison, Michigan ranks 9th in the Big Ten and 131st nationally in assists
getting 13.4 assists per game. You will see a tired Michigan defense in the
second half of this game and a tired defense lacks the abilities to rebound the
ball and get into transition quickly looking for high percentage fast break
Free NCAA Basketball
Pick: Take Northwestern.