2/7/2010 2:00:00 PM
North Carolina totals have been inflated this season because of the high-powered Heels offenses of the past, and as a result, the Under is 7-0 in ACC play. Go Under again at Maryland.
The Under is a perfect 7-0 in all North Carolina Tar Heels ACC games this season, as oddsmakers have continued to set their total based more on past reputation, and this appears to be the case again today when they visit the Maryland Terrapins on Super Bowl Sunday.
Sure, the Heels are still averaging 80.4 points per game for the year, but much of that came during the non-conference portion for their schedule. They have yet to get out of the 70s inside the ACC, and they have not been as potent on the road all year, averaging just 71.2 points away from Chapel Hill with those games averaging a combined 145.2 points, about 12 points less than this posted total.
In a major twist from past season, it has been Maryland that has had the more high powered offense between these two, especially here at home where they are averaging 84.0 points per game. However, the Terrapins have also played great defense at home, permitting only 60.3 points per game on a microscopic 36.4 percent shooting. That combined home total of 144.3 is about 13 points less than this posted total.
In fact, the Maryland defense ranks 22 in the nation in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, allowing only .889 points per possession. Most impressive has been the fact that the Terps are only allowing a 39.8 percent success rate on two-point attempts, which is fifth best in the land. Thus, the Tar Heels will probably have to do much of their scoring in this game from the perimeter, which has not been a string suit this year.
All things considered, the Under at this high posted total looks like a nice bankroll builder for Super Bowl wagers later in the day.
Free Pick: North Carolina, Maryland Under 157½ (-110)