San Jose State favored by one point on the NCAA basketball odds
board when they take on New Mexico State tonight, with tip off set for 11:00PM
This will be an offensive oriented game between two high powered
WAC offenses. Utah State controls the conference with a 14-1 record and are
ranked No. 23 in the polls. New Mexico State is second place in conference with
an 8-4 record, but stands at just 14-13 overall. So, they will need to make a
strong finish to pique the interest of the NIT Tournament selection committee.
San Jose State may be playing for pride at this point of the
season and a win over this rival would certainly make their season a bit more
rewarding. San Jose State ranks eighth in conference with a 3-9 record, but
certainly have the offense and strong team rebounding to be favored slightly in
this game. I fully expect San Jose State to win this game easily.
This play grades as a five star lock based on my proprietary
sports handicapping database and simulator, which shows a high probability that
San Jose State will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this
graded play is a system that has produced a record of 84-41 ATS for 67% winners
Play on a road team where the line
is +3 to -3 and is a solid three point shooting team hitting between 32 and
36.5% of their three point shots and now facing a solid three point defense
allowing 32 to 36.5% of their three point shots and after 15 or more games of
the regular season and after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or
better. Many criteria to this system, but certainly one worth tracking and
making additional wagers as plays qualify.
Stats and Rankings
New Mexico State Aggies rank third in conference and 89th nationally in scoring
offense at 71.6 points per game, but average just 65.8 points per game in road
affairs. The San Jose State Spartans rank second in conference and 63rd
nationally in scoring offense at 73.0 points per game and are averaging 73.9
points per game in home games.
Spartans are a significantly better second half team than the Aggies and this
will be evident in this game tonight. The Spartans rank second in conference
and 98th nationally in second half scoring averaging 37.4 points per game and
38.2 points per game in home games. The Aggies rank fifth in conference and
158th nationally in second half scoring averaging 36.4 points per game, but are
averaging just 33.4 points per game in road tilts.
Edge to San Jose State
Jose State has a significant edge in total rebounding and this will a dominant
reason they win this game tonight. The Spartans rank best in conference and
34th nationally in total rebounding getting 38.0 boards per game. By
comparison, the Aggies rank second to last in eighth position in conference and
190th nationally in total rebounding averaging 34.4 boards per game. Strong
rebounding minimizes second chance scoring opportunities for any opponent and
has a direct affect on the flow and score of the game.
Spartans have not had many offensive boards in recent games, but the matchups
heavily favor them to have 10 to 14 offensive boards tonight. Note that the
Spartans are 12-2 ATS after two straight games with nine or less offensive
rebounds over the last three seasons. Spartans have also played extremely well
against strong competition noting they are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team
with a winning record this season.