The madness is coming to an end and there is likely not a bracket left standing after some big names went out early. The NCAA Championship game sees Kansas take on Kentucky.
To start, I have released a 5* play on Kentucky that can be reviewed and studied at this link. I would also like to take the time to thank everyone for our highly successful NCAA Basketball with John Ryan thread. It has been quite enjoyable, even during the losing streaks, to share some of the opinions, facts, and research. I strongly believe the interaction of posters and the handicapping ideas that have been exchanged and debated has been a very positive experience.
Just one announcement before I delve into the Total for the Men’s Basketball Championship. I have released the MLB thread and I invite all to participate in this thread as well. There is no doubt that this is the most overlooked sport in the sports betting industry and as a result has offered the greatest opportunities for financial gain over the marathon 162-game season. To start, did you know that the in each year the Kentucky Wildcats have won the Men’s Basketball Championship, the New York Yankees have won the World Series. This is a bit of near meaningless coincidence, but it is 100% ATS and the Yankees and Phillies are destined to meet in this year’s Classic.
In five Tournament games played Kansas is 3-2 ATS and the total has gone 4-1 UNDER
Let’s take a look at the breakdown at the respective paths these two teams have taken to get to the final. Kansas defeated Detroit 65-50 and covered as 13.5 point favorites and the game final was UNDER the posted total of 143 points in Round 1. Kansas defeated Purdue in a game they really were in trouble 63-60 and failed to cover as eight point favorites and the UNDER won the money against a 142 total.
In the Sweet 16, they defeated a strong NC State team 60-57 and again failed to cover as 8.5 point favorites and the total easily went UNDER the posted 143.5 total. In the Elite 8 they smashed North Carolina 80-67 and covered as two point favorites and the OVER won the money against a 141.5 point total. In the last game, they trailed Ohio State by 13 points and still managed to will their way to victory with a 64-62 win and covered as three points dogs and the UNDER won the money against a 137 posted total.
Kentucky enters this Final 3-1-1 ATS and 4-1 OVER in their five games
Kentucky has rolled through the Tournament and they continue to have that rare ability to ‘flip the switch’ and dominate opponents. Nothing was more true when Louisville had erased the 13 point deficit to tie the game in the second half. Kentucky, led obviously by Anthony Davis, then flipped the switch and pulled away with some of the most dominating play yet seen in the tournament.
In the Round One, Kentucky played Western Kentucky and won 81-66, but failed to cover as 26.5 point favorites and the OVER won the money against a posted total of 136.5 points. In their second game, Kentucky defeated Iowa State 87-71 and covered as 12 point favorites and the OVER won the money against a posted total of 142 points.
In the Sweet 16 round of play, Kentucky destroyed a strong Indiana team 102-90 and covered as 9.5 point favorites and again the OVER won the money against a posted total of 144.5 points. In the Elite Eight, Kentucky dominated Baylor leading by 23 points at one point before winning 82-70 and covering as 9.5 point favorites and the OVER won the money against a 148 point total. In the Final Four semifinal, Kentucky defeated Louisville and pushed as eight point favorites 69-61 and the UNDER won the dough against a 135.5 posted total.
One team comes in on a nice UNDER run and the other a nice OVER run so something has to give in this Final and when I look at the NCAA basketbal odds board, I have a modest 5* play UNDER.
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 137 points will be scored in this game. The sim also shows projections that Kentucky will make between 38% and 45% of their three point shot attempts; Kansas will grab between 34 and 39 rebounds; Kentucky will shoot between 40 and 46% and will grab between nine and 13 offensive boards.
In past games, Kansas is 6-0 UNDER in road games when their opponents have made between 38% and 45% of their three point shot attempts; 10-3 UNDER when they grab between 34 and 39 boards. Kentucky is 16-5 UNDER when they make between 40 and 46% of their shots spanning the last two seasons; 10-2 UNDER in road games when they grab between nine and 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season.
Take the UNDER for a 5* graded play