Historically, the ACC Championship always comes down to North Carolina and Duke with several teams trying their best to chase them to no avail. This season is a bit different with Florida State deadlocked with the Duke and UNC for the conference lead.
College basketball picks season record stands at 68-73 ATS with 5* Titans, 14-4 ATS with 10* Titans and 2-1 ATS with 20* Titans. Join me at the College Basketball with John Ryan thread at least once a day to get all of the plays and latest handicapping news from dozens of posters, who are very knowledgeable in their own right. 

10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Duke in a marquee ACC matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  

The NCAA basketball odds makers opened this game as a pick but Duke are now -1.5 on the spread with the total dropping to 138.5.

FSU has posted a 19-7 season record and are 10-2 in the ACC and these combined records are good enough to get them No. 16 in the national AP poll. No. 4 Duke has shown chinks in the armor this season and FSU was one of those teams defeating the Blue Devils on the road 76-73. Duke is 23-4 on the season and 10-2 in conference play. 

Bernard JamesWith a home win tonight the Seminoles would control their destiny having their three remaining games against Miami (FLA), Virginia, and Clemson. North Carolina plays Duke March 3 in the regular season finale and should Duke defeat them, it would give Florida State the Atlantic Coast conference title. 

Duke’s defense is highly suspect and is being overlooked by media talking heads. They rank a horrid 20th allowing 68.9 points per game. By comparison, FSU’s defense ranks 30th in the nation allowing 60.8 points per game. This has been accomplished in the ACC where some of the best teams in the nation live and where nearly every team is a highly competitive program. 

FSU is a superior rebounding team as well and this will serve to minimize second chance scoring opportunities by Duke. The rebounding edge is even more apparent when they are Borden down into offensive and defensive categories. FSU ranks 36th in the nation getting 23.9 defensive boards per game and 87th getting 10.5 offensive boards per game. Duke, by comparison ranks 69th averaging 23.1 defensive boards per game and 60th averaging 11.0 offensive boards per game. The fact is that FSU will do a superior job on the defensive glass and this will be a dominant reason they win this game. 

One other part is that FSU knows how to turn up the defensive heat and they have posted a 0.632 assist-to-turnover ratio ranking 11th best in the nation. They also rank 22nd getting an average of 16.0 forced turnovers per game. I strongly believe that the FSU defense will have the Duke in a confused state for significant periods of time in this game. 

Simulator projections

My proprietary sports betting database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida State will win this game and defeat Duke twice in the same season. FSU will use their defense and half-court offensive proficiency to control the tempo of the game. The simulator confirms this belief showing a high probability that they will attempt between 54 and 62 shots. In past games, FSU is 8-1 ATS when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game spanning the past two seasons.  

Take Florida State as a 10* Titan Play