The Baylor Bears and Kansas State go head to head Thursday afternoon in Big 12 Tournment action. Lets examine the odds on offer from the sportsbooks and decide which way we should lean with our NCAA Basketball picks.

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Baylor vs. Kansas State

10* NCAA Basketball pick on Baylor as they take on Kansas State in the quarterfinal of the Phillips 66 Big-12 Conference Tournament set to start at 12:30 PM ET. No. 11 Baylor has had an excellent season and are riding the successful wave their football program produced in the fall. Winning is a contagious attitude and Baylor is one of those teams that could make a big run in this tournament and then the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor enters this game ranked No. 11 in the nation with an impressive 26-6 record and are 12-6 in the Big-12 conference. Kansas State has done well posting a 21-9 season record and a solid 10-8 Big-12 record.

The College Hoops Betting Line

Baylor BearsNCAA basketball betting lines opened with Baylor as a skinny two point favorite. Initially, this was a bit surprising, but the public believe that Kansas State needs to win this game for their Tournament resume more than Baylor. As a result, the NCAA basketball odds may fall to Baylor favored by one single point on this neutral court in Kansas City, Missouri. 

Also keep in mind that K-State defeated Baylor 57-56 February 18, so although they are not ranked the many NCAA basketball bettors believe that they can compete with Baylor for a full 40 minutes. I simply disagree and this is one of the few times where a line that appears to be weak and just too good to be true is a solid sports betting opportunity.

Baylor is coming off an 80-72 loss at Iowa State and failed to cover the spread while installed as two point dogs. They have however, won three of their last four games and have gone 2-2 ATS in them. Kansas State is coming off a blowout 77-58 win over a weak Oklahoma State team and covered the 12 point spread. They have won four of their last five games and covered the games they won. So, again the recent ‘flash’ results give the public false confidence to bet Kansas State as the better team getting points. 

Team Ranks and Matchups

These offense are nearly opposites with Baylor a dominant perimeter based shooting team and K-State preferring to work the ball into the post and get shots close to the basket. I believe this is the dominant advantage Baylor has in this game. They are an excellent ball movement team and can work the ball very well to find the open teammate with the best scoring opportunity.

Baylor is a superior foul throw shooting team ranking 27th in the nation making 75% of their free throw attempts. By comparison, K-State is painful to watch from the foul line making just 66.3% of their free throws ranking 260th in the nation. I believe Baylor will use their quickness on offense and look to drive to the rim more than on average and will have at least six more free shots in this game. The free throw part of this game will show Baylor to have a 10 point or more advantage and will contribute largely to them advancing in this Big-12 Conference Tournament.

My Pick: Take Baylor as a 10* Titan Play.