The Oklahoma City Thunder dodged a bullet last night, but can they do it again tonight as a small favorite over the Golden State Warriors? The sportsbook odds makers have set tight lines, so which side should you be on?

The Oklahoma City Thunder escaped from Portland last night with an overtime win and was a fortunate winner 5* winner for my NBA thread. My record now stands at 21-18 ATS with NBA 5* plays and 4-2 ATS with 10* plays so do yourself a favor and check it out several times a day not just for the free NBA picks, but contributions and thought provoking exchanges by other followers. 

It was a highly questionable goaltending call that allowed Oklahoma City tie the game with just six seconds left in the game last night. In looking at the replay, it appeared conclusive that the goaltending call was not correct, but the play was not reviewed by the officiating crew despite emotional pleadings from Portland’s coaching staff. We’ll take the win however we get it. 

Tonight the Thunder enter as 2.5 point favorites on the NBA odds boards with a total of 206.5. Will Oklahoma City face another nailbiter tonight, or are we expecting them to walk away with the "W" comfortably? Find out as we discuss this matchup and share our NBA pick for this game.

Oklahoma City Background

Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma City is 19-5 and has the best record in the NBA and best record in the Western conference. They lead the Denver Nugets by 4.5 games in the Northwest division of the Western Conference. 

Oklahoma City has won seven of the past nine games and posted a 5-4 ATS mark with the ‘over’ winning the money in six of these nine games. They have played consistently over this span of games and there are significant signs that they are getting even better. They have had 57 or more rebounds in five of the last nine games and this minimizes opponents second chance scoring opportunities and generates fast break scoring opportunities for them on offense. 

Golden State Background

The Warriors are struggling this year to an 8-13 record and trail the Los Angeles Clippers by 6.5 games in the Pacific division of the Western conference. One of their biggest problems is a lack of defensive intensity. They rank 28th in the NBA allowing 100.0 points per game and now have to face the third best scoring offense with the Thunder averaging 100.4 points per game. This is not at all favorable for the Warriors despite that the Thunder are playing back-to-back road games. 

Simulator Projections

My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a high probability that the Thunder will win this game by four or more points. Golden State will attempt to slow the pace of the game so that they are not blown out in the first half. The simulator shows a high probability that the Thunder will take 76 or fewer shots, will have a minimum of four more free throws, will have a minimum of four more boards, will have 10 to 15 offensive boards, and will force the Warriors into committing 13 to 17 turnovers.

In past games, the Thunder are 23-12 ATS in slowdown games where they attempt 76 or less shots over the last two seasons; 48-27 ATS when they attempt four to nine more free throws than opponents in a game since 1996; 32-17 ATS in road games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last three seasons; 30-15 ATS in road games in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last three seasons. Golden State is just 107-142 ATS when they grab four to nine fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996.

Take the Oklahoma City Thunder for a 5* Titan play.