San Antonio have hit a rough patch recently and have lost three in a row, most recently a 111-104 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Expect them to stop the rot tonight and cover against the Blazers.

Season record (35-27-1 ATS for 57% ATS winners)

NBA free pick on the San Antonio Spurs as they host the Portland trailblazers set to start at 8:00 PM ET.

The San Antonio Spurs have lost three straight games since Tim Duncan went down with a severely sprained left ankle and he is not expected to return anytime soon. However, the Spurs are talented enough to reinvent themselves in Duncan’s absence and it sometimes takes a few games to adjust to that new game plan.

If there was ever a good time to have Duncan go down to a serious injury it would be now as the Spurs have a four game lead over the Lakers in the Western Conference with just nine games left to the regular season schedule. They need only win four of the next nine games in combination with the Lakers winning out and I don’t think either is a likely outcome.

Supporting System and Simulator Projections

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that San Antonio will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-19 using the money line for 65% winners since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line off a loss against a division rival facing an opponent off a road loss against a division rival. Portland lost at Oklahoma City in their last game 99-90 installed as 4 12 point dogs. San Antonio is off a road loss to Memphis 111-104 and failed to cover as 1.5 point dogs on the NBA odds board.

Game Situations Favoring the Spurs

The simulator shows high probabilities that San Antonio will make between 47 and 51% of their shots, make 39 to 45% of their three point shot attempts, and holed Portland to a total score of 93 to 98 points. IN past games where they achieved these performance standards the Spurs are 27-14 ATS making 11.6 units per one unit wagered when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last two seasons; 23-10 ATS making 12.0 units per one unit wagered when they make 39% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last two seasons; 14-5 ATS making 8.5 units per one unit wagered when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game this season.

Portland relies on the perimeter game to score points and the Spurs have done very well defending the perimeter and teams similar to the Portland Trailblazers in past games. Note that the Spurs are a solid 25-11 ATS making 12.9 units facing teams who make six or more three point shots per game this season.

Take the Spurs to bounce back from their three game losing streak in a very big way tonight.