NBA picks,Western conference ,ATS summary
2/15/2012 3:38:00 PM
Let's look into the best and worst ATS teams in the West.
Everyone knew Oklahoma City was going to be one of the elite
teams in the NBA this year, barring injury. And as expected, they have the best
record in the NBA counting games through February 13th. However,
despite their hyped stars and expected dominance, they have still been a
slightly profitable bet on the year. Like their counterparts in the East, the
Chicago Bulls, who have an almost identical record, OKC has been just a .500
team against the spread at home this year, and it is on the road where they
have had some line value.
San Antonio and Sacramento have played well in the first
half of February, and have been great bets as well. But it’s not clear that
either team will be a good bet going forward; in the Spurs’ case, because their
lines may adjust upward, and in the Kings’ case, because their current level of
play may not be sustainable.
Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans have all been bad bets in
the first two weeks of February, and that probably had a lot to do with
injuries, at least in the case of Denver and New Orleans. Denver’s aggressive,
high-energy style of play is particularly dependent on good health, depth and
rest, and when they begin to get depleted in those areas, they get hit harder
than most teams. New Orleans simply has had a run of bad luck recently, as
evidenced by their most recent game where they dressed only 9 players. With a
compressed schedule, that lack of depth gets magnified. They got a boost when
Chris Kaman recently returned, but if he and Emeka Okafor have health issues in
their upcoming road trip, a Charlotte Bobcats-esque level of futility and ATS
losing may be their fate.
Posted totals have come more in line with scoring in the NBA
over the past month, and blindly betting unders with all teams is no longer a
profitable thing to do. Oklahoma City, notably, has increased scoring recently,
and as a result has been a strong over-trender as well. But unders are still coming
in at about 55% in the West, and certain teams such as Phoenix look to be
likely to keep it up a while longer. Phoenix’ roster of rotation players in
their 30s is likely to be a factor league-wide that may be indicative of under
trends in the second half and down the stretch, and Phoenix’ strong under trend
on the year is at least likely to stay at over 50% unders for at least a little
while going forward.