Use SBR's NBA Betting Systems Guide as an aid to help you find the best value when making plays on the total. What trends can you use to make sure you are on the right side of the line with your NBA picks?
The NBA has a long season that often has a few twists and
turns. There’s the early part of the season before Christmas where you wonder
which teams are overachieving and which teams haven’t even woken up yet. Then
there’s the middle part of the season where we start to see everyone’s true
colors and then there’s the home stretch where some teams push for the playoffs
and others simply quit while trying to get a better draft pick.
When you add all of that up, it seems like betting
systems would be ineffective in the sport. However, we’ve compiled a small list
of NBA betting systems that basketball bettors have used in the past and found to be quite
profitable. The recommendation is that you don’t strictly rely on these systems
and instead, use them to supplement your regular handicapping.
Read our breakdown of the NBA Christmas Betting System
High Total System
This is a system courtesy of Allen Moody over at
About.com and this strategy focuses on betting games where the totals are particularly
high. This system only has two criteria and it’s very simple: first off, you
need to find games where the totals are 220 or higher and secondly, the matchup
has to be non-conference. At that point, you add the over to your NBA picks.
The records show that from 2004-05 to 2008-09, the record
was 31-18, which is about 63.5%. Given the winning percentage, it’s definitely
worth keeping in your repertoire.
Low Total System
If you’re thinking that the Low Total System is the
opposite of the High Total System, think again. It was a fair assumption,
This system has a little less logic to it as all you do
is bet under on the lowest total on the NBA odds board as long as there are at least
four games being played that night. While it may seem like it doesn’t make much
sense to just bet blindly on the under on the lowest total on the board, the
thinking here is that the public loves to bet overs and historically, overs
haven’t cashed in most of the time.
So what you’re banking on is the public pushing the
numbers up on what the NBA odds makers believe to be the lowest-scoring game of the
night. Wait under game time to get the best value with this system.
Lastly, we’ve got another system courtesy of Allen Moody
at About.com and this one is a strategy that examines how teams play at home
versus how they play on the road.
In this system, we are looking at the average combined
score of the games of a specific team when they are at home and comparing it to
the same thing when they are on the road. For example: let’s say the Los
Angeles Lakers score 99 points per game at home and allow 91, and score 105 per
game on the road and allow 95, that gives them an average total of 190 at home
and 200 on the road.
The next step is to compare the two averages (190 and
200) and if the difference is more than five points, you bet the totals
accordingly. So in this case, you would bet over on the Lakers road games and
under on the Lakers home games.
You need a body of
work from the teams before you can start betting this system, which means you
only use it after January 1st.