Scoring has been up in recent NBA action, but the Under is the play in this one. Look for the low side of the number to cash Friday when Phoenix and Golden State meet.
I’m going against a current “red-hot” NBA trend and suggesting you play the Under in tonight’s Golden State Warriors, Suns matchup in Phoenix.
It’s a pretty impressive trend. In the last 32 NBA games, the Over has cashed to the tune of 72%. The public perception is that when these two teams meet we should be prepared for a shootout of epic proportions. However, the recent play of Phoenix and Golden State suggests this one will stay below the number.
The Warriors have been held to 93 points or less in their last three road games and are 4-6 to the low side in their last 10 games. During that same stretch, they’ve combined to top the 230 number just three times. That includes Wednesday night’s 124-112 victory over the Suns in the first game of a home and home set.
Prior to that game, Phoenix had been playing their best defense of the season. Only two of their previous six opponents topped the century mark.
If you think about it, these teams need to average 68 points per quarter to get you an Over payday. One bad stretch from either team and your play could become toast. The two teams combined for 236 points two nights ago and that was with Phoenix playing little or no defense. Amare Stoudamire was especially dreadful and so was anyone guarding Stephen Jackson.
If the Suns play even a little D tonight, the Under is the way to go.
Free Pick: Warriors-Suns Under 230½ (-110)