The New York Mets have finally got their offense going again, and they couldn't of done it at a better time as they host one of the highest scoring teams in Major League Baseball, their cross town rivals, the New York Yankees.
The New York Mets come back to Citifield to take on yet another division leader in the American League. The Amazins’ are coming off taking four of six on the road against AL West leader and defending AL Champion Texas and AL Central leader Detroit.
The Yankees have simply dominated every team in the majors with the exception of Boston. The Bombers are 24 games over .500 against everyone except Boston, while they are 1-8 against the Red Sox. Since getting swept at home against the Red Sox for the second time this season in early June, the Yankees are 15-4. They are coming off a three-game sweep of NL Central leading Milwaukee, and enter Friday winners of five straight games.
The Yankees should have little problem continuing their dominance of NL teams, whom they are 11-4 against this season. They have won seven of their past 10 games at Citifield and despite not throwing either CC Sabathia or A.J. Burnett, they will silence the Mets bats who are due to start struggling after playing over their heads for the past six weeks.
The YANKEES will win the series, and most likely sweep the Mets.
MLB betting trends give another reason to side with the Yankees:
NY METS are 41-60 (40.6%, -31.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games since 1997. The average score was NY METS 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*).
The Mets offense had been on fire entering Thursday, but were shut down by perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the majors this season when Justin Verlander held them to just seven hits and two runs over seven innings in the Tigers 5-2 victory. The Mets had scored 52 runs and collected 69 hits (.404 team BA) in winning their previous four games.
Jose Reyes continues to show why he is a serious MVP candidate, going 14-for-24 (.583) with nine runs scored in his past five games. Many had speculated that the Mets might trade Reyes, but not with the way he is playing now. Teammates Daniel Murphy, who is hitting .455 (15-for-33) with 11 RBI in his past eight games, and Angel Pagan, 8-for-13 (.615) with five runs scored and five RBI in his past three games, have provided Reyes will some help recently.
For the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez has enjoyed his past nine games immensely, going 15-for-33 (.455) with eight runs scored and nine RBI, while Nick Swisher has a run in five straight games and has scored at least once in 11 of his past 15 games, hitting .373 (19-51) over that span.
Pitching Probables for Friday, July 1 - 7:10 EDT
Friday line: Yankees -115, Mets +105, Total: 9
NYY: 10-5 (+4.15 Units) when Ivan Nova starts
NYM: 9-7 (+3.40 Units) when Jonathon Niese starts
Nova (7-4, 4.26 ERA) – Ivan Nova has improved greatly since his first four outings of the season when he allowed 13 ER and 19 hits in his 15.1 IP (7.63 ERA). Since then, he is 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA, allowing 2 ER or fewer in seven of his 12 starts. He received a no-decision in his last start against the Rockies, allowing four runs (coming on three HR allowed) in six innings. This was after he made perhaps his best start of the season, allowing one run and four hits in pitching a season-high eight innings in a win over the Reds.
Game 1 of this series will see Nova facing the Mets for the second time this season. He was hit hard by the Mets on May 22 at Yankee Stadium, as they collected 11 hits (the most he has allowed in a start in his career), but scored just three runs and he received a ND in a game the Yankees won.
Niese (7-6, 3.67 ERA) – Niese left after 5.2 innings in his last start due to heartbeat irregularity. He got the win, allowing just two runs on six hits at Texas. This came after he was roughed up in his previous start at home against the Angels, allowing eight hits and five runs in just four innings pitched. Niese has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his past 13 starts, and if you take away his poor start against the Angels, he is 7-3 with a 2.69 ERA in those 12 starts.
Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 2 – 4:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
NYY: 7-3 (+3.25 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
NYM: 11-1 (+11.15 Units) when Dillon Gee starts
Colon (5-3, 3.10 ERA) – Game 2 will see a matchup between Colon and Gee. Bartolo Colon has pitched very well in his return to the majors after missing 2010. He is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA since being named to the starting rotation on April 20, and has held opponents to 2 ER or fewer in six of those 10 starts. Colon has been excellent away from home, going 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his six starts and the Yankees winning five of those six starts.
Since getting roughed up for five runs and nine hits in 4.1 innings at Texas on May 7, Colon has been nearly untouchable on the road, going 2-0 and allowing just three runs and 13 hits in his 22.1 IP. This will be his fifth career start against the Mets, and his first one since 2005 when he was a member of the Angels. He is 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in his previous four starts.
Gee (8-1, 3.32 ERA) – After Gee was exposed a bit in his previous start against the Athletics, allowing six walks and three hits in four innings as the Mets lost for the first time when he started, Gee recovered to pitch well in defeating the Rangers last Sunday. Although he didn’t have his best stuff, he held Texas to just three runs on eight hits in six innings. The Mets have won all but one of Gee’s 12 starts, as he has consistently kept batters off balance allowing 3 ER of fewer in nine of those 12 starts.
Dillon Gee also as the second most profitable pitcher in the league for MLB Bettors, only behind Washingtons Jason Marquis.
Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 3 - 1:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
NYY: 8-6 (+0.30 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
NYM: 6-10 (-4.45 Units) when R.A. Dickey starts
Garcia (7-6, 3.28 ERA) – Garcia has been a nice surprise for the Yankees this season, as he has held opponents to three runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts this season. Garcia is 2-2 in four starts this year against NL opponents, going six innings in each of his starts, posting a 2.33 ERA. He gave up two earned runs in a 12-2 win against the Brewers on Tuesday.
After winning his first career start against the Mets when he was a member of the Mariners in 2003, Garcia has lost his past two starts, including earlier this season at Yankee Stadium where he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings.
Dickey (4-7, 3.77 ERA) – Since starting the season 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA in his first nine starts, Dickey is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in his past eight starts. He is coming off a win against the Tigers in his last start on Tuesday, allowing 10 hits and 3 ER in his seven innings, marking the fifth time in his past eight starts he has gone at least seven innings.
This successful eight-game stretch started at Yankee Stadium on May 20 when Dickey allowed just one run on four hits in six innings, getting the victory in the Mets 2-1 win. In his eight career appearances (just two starts) against the Yankees, Dickey is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA.
The Yankees will win this Series, and should get the sweep.