Jordan Zimmerman and R.A. Dickey will be taking to the mound at Grass of Citi Field today and the MLB odds makers have the Mets favored by -155 to +137 for the Nationals.
Current Record: 5-1 +3.00 units

MLB free pick on the Washington Nationals as they take on the New York Mets set to start at 4:10 in National League East action. 

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Nationals will win this game. These are two teams that truly do not have much of a chance having arguably the best team in baseball in their division in the Philadelphia Phillies

Travel related facts

Throughout the season there will be travel related news that can adversely effect a team. In this case both teams are traveling near identical distances with Washington having played at home and making the 204 mile trip to Queens in New York City. The New York Mets lost two of three in Philadelphia and will travel about 100 miles to get back home. 

Supporting system

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 86-48 making 43.6 units since 2005. Play against any team after scoring one or less runs in a loss to a division rival and starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. The Mets were humiliated 11-0 in Philadelphia Thursday. Mets starter Dickey had a strong first start to the 2011 season completing six innings of work allowing five hits and no earned runs in the Mets 9-2 win at Florida April 3. 

Starters analysis

R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer and has an inspiring story of dedication and perseverance. He was drafted in the first round of the 1996 draft by the Texas Rangers and is a Kentucky native and attended the University of Tennessee. Florida is not a patient group of hitters and patience at the plate is what is needed most to attack a knuckleballer. 

The keys to a knuckleballer are to work counts and be driving the ball to the opposite field. Batters that try to pull the ball will end up making easy ground ball outs or easy ‘can of corn’ pop flies. The Washington Nationals have some excellent hitters in their lineup that possess these traits. 

Dickey will throw the knuckleball 73% of the time for first pitch offerings. With two strikes he throws it even more at 78% of all pitches. He will throw it 76% of the time to left handed batters during their at bats and 69% of the time to right handed batters during their at bats. When he gets behind in the count is where he is vulnerable. The percentage of knuckle ball thrown drops significantly to 53% and batters can sit on a mediocre fastball 44% of the time. These are the situations where Washington batters will have a significant advantage to attack. 

Jordan Zimmerman

Despite yielding just two earned runs spanning six strong innings Zimmerman lost his season debut to the Braves 11-2. He threw just 84 pitches so he will be even stronger for this start this afternoon. His pitch count will be monitored closely since coming off Tommy John surgery. Recent history has shown that many starters coming off Tommy John surgery have strong second years from the surgery date. Rarely has a pitcher shown the command of all his pitches that Zimmerman has displayed since coming back to full time status. What is more common is that they possess a faster fastball, but have significant issues with control on the off speed pitches. Zimmerman is vastly under rated and I strongly believe that he will have another strong dominating performance today. 

Take the Washington Nationals