Houston and San Diego conclude their four-game series this afternoon at Petco Park in California with Mat Latos taking to the bump for the Padres opposite of Houston Astros rookie Jordan Lyles.
MLB lines opened with Latos and the Friars at -168
with the total at 7. Game time is slated
for 3:35 PM PT. In what was expected to be a tight, low-scoring set, two of the
first three games have topped the total.
San Diego is coming off a 6-3 victory on Saturday,
just their 11th home victory of the season. Aaron Harang worked into
the sixth-inning for the victory while Heath Bell struggled but hung on for his
16th save in 17 chances. Brad Hawpe and Rob Johnson each drove in
two runs for SD which has won six of eight. Clint Barmes homered for the
Astros. Who is going to take the series closer?
is a no go
Heading into this series neither team figured to do
much scoring and as a result the MLB betting outlets have set some low totals. Thursday’s number was
6, Friday 6.5 and Saturday the total was 7.
If you are a baseball bettor who took the ‘under’ in any or all of the games,
my condolences and know I was right there with you. I didn’t think these two
teams would score much and while 24 combined runs in three games isn’t a bunch
even the slightest offensive outburst is enough to do you in, if you’re on the
‘under’. In Thursday night’s opener, the Padres usually solid starting pitching
faltered with the Astros winning 7-4. The ‘under’ was a distant memory by the
Friday’s game stayed below the total (3-1) but Saturday,
thanks to the 27th ranked Astros bullpen, the ‘under’ vanished with
three 8th inning runs. So here’s the question. Which holds more
value when you are considering a
totals play particularly on the ‘under’? Is it starting pitching? If so, then
you can put Thursday’s loss squarely on the Padres. If it’s about the relievers
than we can pin Saturday night’s loss on the Astros 27th rated
bullpen. If you played the ‘over’ in all three games than you’re likely bored
to tears with all of this so I’ll move on.
Matt Latos hasn’t had near the season he had in
2010. A year ago he was 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and was in the Cy Young
conversation up until he ran out of gas and/or was limited by a pitch count in
early September. Either way he hasn’t been the same guy since hurting his
shoulder in training camp.
His numbers are way down especially at home but it
hasn’t been entirely of his doing. Latos is 1-4 but he’s been the victim of
non-support with the Padres scoring a total of 10 runs in his five Petco Park
outings. Latos is 0-1 against the Astros this season after getting touched up
for five runs in 6 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss on April 16 and is 2-1 lifetime.
Jordan Lyles will be making his second big league
start for the Astros and if the first one is any indication, he’ll be pitching
in the big leagues for a longtime. He allowed one earned run in seven innings
in a 7-3 win over the Cubs on May 31 but had to settle for a no-decision.
San Diego is 6-2 in its last eight games overall
while the ‘under’ (don’t get me started) is 7-3 in the last 10 home games.
Houston is 3-7 in the last 10 series meetings but
the Padres have taken four of their first seven meetings this year.
Another gorgeous day is on tap in San Diego with clear
skies, temperatures near 70 and a light wind of 11 miles per hour.
Harvey’s Take: Call me a glutton for punishment but I’m sticking with the
‘under’. I realize Latos is due for some run support but is today the day?
Lyles looked impressive in Chicago and he shouldn’t face much of a challenge
against the anemic Padres offense.