The Miami Marlins flopped in last night's season opener, but the club looks to rebound with today's matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. FInd out why we think that the best MLB betting value lies with the Marlins tonight.

10* graded free MLB pick on the Miami Marlins as they take on the Cincinnati Reds set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Opening night at the new Marlins stadium and for the new team was certainly an ‘egg laying’ event. Unheralded Cardinals starter, Kyle Loshe, who was pitching last night so that Chris Carpenter would get the home opener next week, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. 

Reds vs. MarlinsThere was plenty of revelry before Josh Johnson stepped on the mound. Fireworks. A jet flyover. A ceremonial closing of the retractable roof. An appearance by boxing legend Muhammad Ali, who also paid a pregame visit to the Marlins’ clubhouse. 

The hype of a new stadium and Opening Night can get even a professional team completely over charged and then once the first pitch is thrown, the air comes completely out of the sales. I believe that is what occurred last night for the Marlins. 

Cincinnati now has to deal with the home opener hype that includes immense pressure on Joey Votto. He agreed to the largest guaranteed contract in MLB history with a 10-year $225 million contract extension through 2023 that includes a club option for the 2024 season. 

2011 Team Rankings and Stats

The Reds ranked seventh scoring 735 runs, 14th with a .256 team batting average, ninth with a .326 on-base-percentage, and 12th with a .408 slugging percentage. Pitching was a problem in 2011 as the Reds ranked 20th with a 4.16 ERA, 11 th with 90 quality starts, 20th with a 1.33 WHIP, and 14th with a .255 opponent batting average. The bullpen struggled mightily at times and overall the staff did not throw enough first pitch strikes and allowed far too many walks as evident by their weak WHIP result.

With all of the change in the Miami Marlins personnel, it is not meaningful to even list the 2011 stats. The starting lineup in 2012 will have to produce at a much higher and more consistent level. Briefly, this is the team, the Philadelphia Phillies and the rest of the National League should start fearing. They have the combinations in the starting lineup and the lefty-righty matchups that have the potential to win a ton of games. They, of course, still need to execute that scheme on the field of play and I think they will.

The Simulator Projections and Mark Buehrle

The simulator shows a high probability that the Marlins will rebound well with this first road game of the season, and value can be found by adding them to your MLB picks this afternoon. Buehrle gets the nod here and he is a solid 24-12 making 12.9 units per one unit wagered using the money line after a team loss over the last two seasons. His ability to be a ‘stopper’ will not only get the Marlins a win today, but will also save them from extended losing streaks during the course of the 162-game season. Take the Marlins.