The Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers continue their American League Championship series in Detroit on Wednesday and Matt Harrison will take to the mound against Rick Porcello. First pitch is slated for 4:19pm ET.
Ryan has been on a huge winning run in CFB and NFL, as documented in our SBR threads this season. He has gone 15-8 ATS with his 5* NFL picks here at SBR.

Matt Harrison Texas Rangers20* graded play on the Texas Rangers as they take on the Detroit Tigers set to start at 4:15 PM ET.  

The neural based simulator (and 'capper Bob Harvey) shows a very high probability that Texas will win this game and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Detroit got the win they needed, but still remain on the ropes in this series needing another ‘must win’ against arguably the best offensive lineup in baseball. 

The starters

This afternoon we have Texas starting left-handed starter Matt Harrison facing Detroit right-handed starter Rick Porcello. Harrison has had a strong season posting a 15-9 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP in 31 starts spanning 188 2/3 innings of work. In 16 road starts he has posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.231 WHIP spanning 98 1/3 innings of work. Porcello has posted a 14-10 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.394 WHIP in 21 starts spanning 188 innings pitched. In 15 home starts he has posted a pedestrian 5-6 record with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.449 WHIP.

Harrison has never defeated the Tigers, going 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA and a 2.175 WHIP in five starts and disappointing backers in MLB betting. Believe me, this is strong motivation for him to take this winless monkey off his back in the biggest game of the season, knowing he is pitching his best baseball of the season right now.  

Porcello is not much better, posting a 1-1 record in two starts against Texas with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.9000 WHIP. Bottom line is Harrison is the much better starter and he is facing the weaker of the two offenses.

Harrison is not the power pitcher that will dominate the Tigers, but he does have solid control. He will throw fastball 68%, curves 8%, sliders 8%, and change ups 14% of all pitches thrown. He will use the change 15% of the time to left-handed batters and is a situation he has done very well. He will also work low-and-away to left-handed batters 17% of all pitches. He will show a tailing fastball riding in on the hands of a left-handed batter rarely and only to gain control of the inside part of the plate. When facing right-handed batters he will work in the lower portion of the strike zone inducing ground ball outs. 

Porcello has allowed a .373 batting average (19-51) with a .418 on-base-percentage to the current members of the Rangers in their respective careers. His best pitch is his change, as long as his location is down-and-away in the strikezone. He has an above average slider that he will throw 21% of all pitches to right-handed batters. When behind in the count he is extremely vulnerable, electing to throw fastballs 84% of the time. The Texas Rangers will look to work the count in their favor forcing him to throw first pitch strikes. When the counts runs to 2-0 or 2-1 look for Texas batters to be sitting on fastball. 

Supporting system

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 44-17 record, making 32.8 units per one unit wagered at the MLB odds board since 1997. Play on road teams having won 12 or more of their last 15 games in October games. Here is a second system that has gone 33-13 for 72% winners making 21.4 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a good speed team averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases per game on the season, in October games. 

Take Texas