The Philadelphia Phillies looked out of form in last night's loss to the Florida Marlins, but if we have learned anything this season it is that the Phillies don't often loose back to back games. Look for Philladelphia to rebound.
Current record is 47-25 (66% winners)
making 21.95 units per one unit wagered.
Today's MLB free pick graded play on
Philadelphia using the Run Line as they take on Florida in what will be an
abbreviated series due to the imminent impact of Hurricane Irene in the
Philadelphia metropolitan area Saturday night. There was to be a second game taking place
Saturday night beginning at 7:00 PM ET. This game has been cancelled and will
be made up September 15.
Projections and Supporting
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a
high probability that Philadelphia will win this game by three or more runs.
You may be able to get 2 1/2 Run Line
for this game, which would give you a nice DOG reward for a Philadelphia
blowout win. The Phillies have not lost back-to-back games in more than a
month. They have not lost three straight games since June.
I falied to win with my pick yesterday, as the Phillies fell 5-6 to the Marlins. The Phillies looked lethargic last night for the first half of
the game. Trailing 6-1 Ryan Howard hit a three-run home run to close the gap to
6-4 and the Phillies did score a run and had the tying run in scoring position
in the ninth, but failed to get the key hit.
The Phillies are a team that
rarely plays a game without full intensity and you can count on them playing
with full intensity today. They also know they will be playing next in
Cincinnati Monday and this will give starter Cliff Lee and extra day of rest.
On any given day, the worst can beat the best in professional
sports. However, it is very rare that the worst can defeat the best on two
consecutive days. The Phillies offense ranks among the best since the all-star
break having gotten Utley back from injury and then adding Hunter Pence at the
trade deadline. They rank 11th in the majors with 584 runs scored, 14th with
.254 team batting average, 10th with a .325 on-base-percentage, and 15th with a
By comparison, the Marlins rank 22nd with 514 runs scored, 23rd
with a .246 team batting average, 14th with a .317 on-base-percentage, and 21st
with a .387 slugging-percentage.
Again, Pitching is the dominant reason the Phillies sport the
best record in the majors. They rank best with a 3.09 ERA, second with 85
quality starts, best with a 1.17 WHIP, and fourth allowing a .241 opponent
batting average. The Marlins rank a miserable 22nd with a 4.15 ERA, 24th with
65 quality starts, 17th a 1.32 WHIP, and 16th allowing a .256 opponent batting
Making matters extremely difficult will be that Phillies top ace
Roy Halladay will be starting and he has not been at all pleased with his
recent results. For one of the few times in his career he blew a ninth inning
lead in his second to last start against Arizona losing 3-2. He then had a
no-decision in his last start throwing just five innings and allowing two ER,
but a rain delay prevented him from going his usual seven to nine innings of
work. He has posted an 8-2 record with a 2.32 ERA and a 0.974 WHIP in 14 home
starts this season.
Philadelphia is a solid 35-10 making 21.4 units per
one unit wagered against the money line after a loss this season. Roy Halladay
is 19-3 making 14.5 units per one unit wagered against the money line after a
game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.
My Pick: Take
Philadelphia using the Run Line.