The Philadelphia Phillies looked out of form in last night's loss to the Florida Marlins, but if we have learned anything this season it is that the Phillies don't often loose back to back games. Look for Philladelphia to rebound.

Current record is 47-25 (66% winners) making 21.95 units per one unit wagered. 

Today's MLB free pick graded play on Philadelphia using the Run Line as they take on Florida in what will be an abbreviated series due to the imminent impact of Hurricane Irene in the Philadelphia metropolitan area Saturday night. There was to be a second game taking place Saturday night beginning at 7:00 PM ET. This game has been cancelled and will be made up September 15. 

Projections and Supporting System


My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game by three or more runs. You may be able to get 2 1/2 Run Line for this game, which would give you a nice DOG reward for a Philadelphia blowout win. The Phillies have not lost back-to-back games in more than a month. They have not lost three straight games since June.

I falied to win with my pick yesterday, as the Phillies fell 5-6 to the Marlins. The Phillies looked lethargic last night for the first half of the game. Trailing 6-1 Ryan Howard hit a three-run home run to close the gap to 6-4 and the Phillies did score a run and had the tying run in scoring position in the ninth, but failed to get the key hit.

The Phillies are a team that rarely plays a game without full intensity and you can count on them playing with full intensity today. They also know they will be playing next in Cincinnati Monday and this will give starter Cliff Lee and extra day of rest. 

Team Rankings

On any given day, the worst can beat the best in professional sports. However, it is very rare that the worst can defeat the best on two consecutive days. The Phillies offense ranks among the best since the all-star break having gotten Utley back from injury and then adding Hunter Pence at the trade deadline. They rank 11th in the majors with 584 runs scored, 14th with .254 team batting average, 10th with a .325 on-base-percentage, and 15th with a .401 slugging-percentage. 

By comparison, the Marlins rank 22nd with 514 runs scored, 23rd with a .246 team batting average, 14th with a .317 on-base-percentage, and 21st with a .387 slugging-percentage. 

Again, Pitching is the dominant reason the Phillies sport the best record in the majors. They rank best with a 3.09 ERA, second with 85 quality starts, best with a 1.17 WHIP, and fourth allowing a .241 opponent batting average. The Marlins rank a miserable 22nd with a 4.15 ERA, 24th with 65 quality starts, 17th a 1.32 WHIP, and 16th allowing a .256 opponent batting average. 

Roy Halladay

Making matters extremely difficult will be that Phillies top ace Roy Halladay will be starting and he has not been at all pleased with his recent results. For one of the few times in his career he blew a ninth inning lead in his second to last start against Arizona losing 3-2. He then had a no-decision in his last start throwing just five innings and allowing two ER, but a rain delay prevented him from going his usual seven to nine innings of work. He has posted an 8-2 record with a 2.32 ERA and a 0.974 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. 

Game Situations

Philadelphia is a solid 35-10 making 21.4 units per one unit wagered against the money line after a loss this season. Roy Halladay is 19-3 making 14.5 units per one unit wagered against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.

My Pick: Take Philadelphia using the Run Line.