It is Juan Nicasio versus Rubby De La Rosa
tonight at the Grass of Dodger Stadium, first pitch is slated for 10:10pm ET.
The Dodgers opened at -125 in the MLB odds but have since moved to -118 on the money line.
MLB free pick on the Los
Angeles Dodgers as they host the Colorado Rockies set to start at 10:10 PM
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a
high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.
The Dodgers (45-56) are in fourth place trailing the National
League West division leading Giants by 13 1/2 games. The Rockies (48-54) are
not in a much better position, sitting in third place and trailing the Giants by
11 games. However, the Dodgers have won three of their last four games while the
Rockies have lost three of the past four games. Both teams are not in
contention for a playoff spot this season, but the Dodgers are playing solid
baseball at this time.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record
of 81-26 making 47.7 units per one unit wagered for 76% winners since 2005. Play on home
favorites with a money line of -110 or higher and is a struggling hitting team
batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games facing an opponent starting a
pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last two outings. This system has
produced an 18-6 mark making 10.8 units per one MLB betting unit wagered this season.
The Dodgers record is reflected in their season team stats. They
rank 27th with just 365 runs scored, 19th with a .249 team batting average,
20th with a .314 on-base-percentage, and 26th with a .359 slugging percentage.
The pitching staff is above average and with more run support they would be a
team contending for the divisional crown. The Dodgers pitching staff ranks 14th
with a 3.845 ERA. 11th with 58 quality starts, 11th with a 1.28 WHIP, and 12th
with a .249 opponent batting average.
The Rockies are almost the direct opposite of the Dodgers, sporting an above average offense that is not supported well enough by the
pitching staff. The Rockies rank eighth with 457 runs scored, 14th with a .255
team batting average, eighth with a .327 on-base-percentage, and ninth with a
.408 slugging-percentage. The pitching staff has struggled mightily ranking 26th
with a 4.26 ERA, 25th with just 49 quality starts, 24th with a 1.36 WHIP, and
25th with a .260 opponent batting average.
The Rockies will send Juan Nicasio to the hill and the 6-3 200
pound right hander has a 3-4 record posting a 3.73 ERA with a 1.361 WHIP in 11
appearances including eight starts. He does not have dominating stuff as
evidenced by recording 49 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings pitched. Control has
been an issue in most of his starts and he has yet to have solid control in two
straight starts. He allowed zero walks in his last spanning five innings, but
allowed nine hits and two earned runs in a 5-3 loss to the Giants. So, it is
evident that he has to paint the corners to get outs and when he does not he
gets hit hard. I strongly believe that the Dodgers will get to him in a big way
The Dodgers are a solid 33-13 making 16.1 units per one unit wagered against
the money line in home games after batting .225 or worse over a five game span
over the last three seasons.