Randy Wolf is quietly putting together a solid season for Milwaukee and Ted Lilly has pitched much better than his record for the Dodgers and has always pitched well at Miller Park. Go ‘under’ Monday.
Two starting pitchers that are in very good form hook up in an interdivisional National League matchup on Monday night when Ted Lilly and the Los Angeles Dodgers (55-64 overall, 24-30 away) fly eastward to pay a visit to Randy Wolf and the Milwaukee Brewers (70-51 overall, 44-15 home) as the teams begin a long four-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET.
The Dodgers are doing their best to avoid finishing in last place for just the second time since moving to Los Angeles, and after occupying the cellar for much of the season, they have now suddenly moved up to third place in the National League West, one-half game ahead of the fourth place Colorado Rockies and 2½ games ahead of the last place San Diego Padres after sweeping a three-game series vs. the Houston Astros this past weekend.
The Dodgers’ pitching dominated that series, as they gave up a total of only one run in 28 innings, including a 10-inning shutout in the series opener on Friday. Lilly looks to continue that pitching roll tonight and he is certainly in sharp enough form to do so.
Meanwhile, the Brewers remain in first place in the National League Central, five games ahead of the second place St. Louis Cardinals. That standing is helped by Milwaukee having the best home record in baseball by a three-game margin, as the Philadelphia Phillies are next best at 42-19. The Brewers are a team known for offense, but a key reason for their home success has been a 3.42 ERA in this stadium, and Wolf has been a key contributor to that.
The posted total on this contest is 8½, with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.
Wolf is quietly putting together a solid season, as his 9-8 record does not do him justice. The southpaw has an excellent 3.48 ERA, and he has been very consistent as of late. Beginning with his June 8 start against the New York Mets, Wolf has now allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 12 outings.
He is due for some luck against the Dodgers, as he is just 3-4 in 11 career starts against them despite having a good 3.66 ERA in those games. That misfortune for Wolf against Los Angeles continued this season when he took the loss at Dodger Stadium despite allowing only two runs and five hits in 5.2 innings. We expect him to pitch well again tonight, but unfortunately, that still would not guarantee a victory.
That is because Lilly is just as hot, and his 7-12 record is definitely unjustified. Lilly has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts, including allowing a total of three runs and 10 hits in 14 innings over his last two appearances. Keeping in line with the year that Lilly is having though, he actually lost both of those games, by scores of 2-1 and 3-0 respectively.
Lilly has pitched well vs. the Brewers over the years, going 5-2 with a 3.54 ERA lifetime against them, and he is 4-1 in his career at Miller Park with a 2.84 and a microscopic 0.88 WHIP, holding the Brew Crew to just a .199 batting average here. Lilly has not faced the Brewers this season, but he was a perfect three for three in Quality Starts against them last year while allowing only four runs on 14 hits in 20.1 innings.
Finally, both of these bullpens have been hot lately, which should serve as nice insurance for this ‘under’. The Milwaukee pen has posted a blistering 1.07 ERA over the last 10 games, and the Dodgers’ pen has also been excellent, with a 2.77 ERA over that same span.
Thus, look for a well-pitched game from start to finish at Miller Park tonight.
MLB Pick: Dodgers, Brewers ‘under’ 8½ (-115)