Jake Peavy and Daniel Duffy are both off of their best form in recent starts, but both are fresh and are facing struggling offenses, and both have the support of red-hot bullpens. Go ‘under’ tonight.
Runs could be hard to come by in one of the American League Central contests on Tuesday night when Jake Peavy and the Chicago White Sox (47-49 overall, 26-24 away) pay a visit to Daniel Duffy and the Kansas City Royals (38-58 overall, 24-28 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.
The White Sox took the series opener on the road 5-2 on Monday night with the teams easily staying ‘under’ the posted total of 9, bringing the ‘under’ to 19-6-3 in the last 28 White Sox games overall. That leaves the White Sox in third place in the division and only 4½ games behind the division lading Cleveland Indians, while the Royals are wallowing in last place, 13½ games back.
Now both Peavy and Duffy have struggled in recent starts, but both should be fresh tonight after some prolonged rest, and each could recover quickly vs. a couple of offenses that have struggled lately vs. the arm orientation of their respective opposing pitcher. Add in two hot bullpens and go ‘under’ tonight’s total.
The MLB latest line from 5 Dimes has a total of 9 for this contest, with the betting odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.
Peavy was one of the best pitchers in baseball when he pitched for the San Diego Padres, but he has had trouble staying healthy since coming over to the American League. He is having his worst Major League season statistically this year despite being over .500 at 4-3, a he owns a very uncharacteristic 5.27 ERA, but even with that said, he does have a good 1.24 WHIP and he has had good command, with 42 strikeouts vs. just 13 walks in 54.2 innings.
The White Sox as a team are 6-3 against the American League odds in the games that Peavy has started this season for a profit of 2.68 units. Granted, he has now gone five straight starts without recording a Quality Start, but he should be strong tonight pitching on eight days rest and he is facing a Kansas City lineup that is hitting only .223 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging only 3.10 runs per nine innings against them.
Now Duffy looked to have a promising future after his first five Major League starts, allowing three runs or less in four of those starts, but he has since gone five straight starts without recording a Quality Start. The end result for Duffy has been a 1-4 record with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP, and the Royals as a team are 2-8 in MLB betting in all of his starts.
However, the left-hander has a chance to regain the form that he displayed in his first five starts tonight, having not pitched since July 7 and facing a White Sox lineup that is batting only .225 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games while averaging a pathetic 2.33 runs per nine innings against them.
Finally, should either or both of these starters continue to struggle, they can both be bailed out by a couple of hot bullpens. The Chicago pen has been virtually unhittable lately, with a 0.93 ERA over the last 10 games to lower its bullpen ERA for the season to 3.36. Meanwhile, the Kansas City bullpen has also been hot with a 2.28 ERA the last 10 games, lowering its ERA for the season to 3.58.
Thus, we look for the pitchers to set the pace in this contest from start to finish and are looking for a relatively safe ‘under’ in Kansas City Tuesday night.
Free MLB Pick: White Sox, Royals ‘under’ 9 (-115)